Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg
Badajoz - Deportivo Coria
Football
B
Badajoz
-:-
Not started
D
Deportivo Coria
Badajoz meet Deportivo Coria on August 5, 2026 in the Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Badajoz 3-2-0, Deportivo Coria 4-0-1. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2Deportivo Coria — 39%
Pure model vs market (2 · Deportivo Coria): model 34% · market 40%Δ −6 ppmodel estimates below the market
39%2
1 · Badajoz33.5%
X · draw27.2%
2 · Deportivo Coria39.3%
Model estimate: win Badajoz 33.5%, draw 27.2%, win Deportivo Coria 39.3%. Model favourite — Deportivo Coria.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P13.20↓ 2.95
1X2 X3.65↓ 3.35
1X2 P22.03↑ 2.25
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Badajoz3:1Deportivo Coria
13.12
X3.46
22.03
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Badajoz32.8%33.5%
Draw27.5%27.2%draw risk
Deportivo Coria39.6%39.3%market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P233.5% / 27.2% / 39.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,500 / 1,512
Badajoz / Deportivo Coria
RD350 / 224
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD800-2,200 / 1,065-1,960
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
22.25
Fonbet · no value · model 39.3%
X3.35
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
12.95
Fonbet · no value · model 33.5%
Double chance
121.28
Fonbet · no value · model 72.8%
1X1.57
Fonbet · no value · model 60.7%
X21.35
Fonbet · no value · model 66.5%
Handicap
2 -0.52.06
market consensus · line only
2 -11.14
Fonbet · line only
2 +13.55
Fonbet · line only
2 01.64
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.51.90
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.51.80
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No2.02
Fonbet · line only
Yes1.70
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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