Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
BG Pathum United meet Aston Villa on August 3, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.
Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 BG Pathum United — 55%
Model estimate: win BG Pathum United 54.9%, draw 18.4%, win Aston Villa 26.7%. Model favourite — BG Pathum United.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.68 59.5% | |
| 1.76 56.8% | |
| 1.62 61.7% | |
| 1.75 57.1% | |
| 1.88 53.2% | |
| 1.81 55.3% | |
| 1.72 58.1% | |
| 1.73 57.8% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 1.67 59.9% |
| Over 5 | 1.87 53.5% |
| Over 5.5 | 1.80 55.6% |
| Over 6 | 1.82 55.0% |
| Over 6.5 | 1.77 56.5% |
| Over 7 | 1.80 55.6% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
| Under 5 | 1.63 61.4% |
| Under 5.5 | 1.68 59.5% |
| Under 6 | 1.67 59.9% |
| Under 6.5 | 1.71 58.5% |
| Under 7 | 1.68 59.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.65 60.6% | |
| X | 5.40 18.5% |
| 2.80 35.7% |
Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
Full head-to-head historyBG Pathum United - Aston Villa
The BG Pathum United - Aston Villa breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
