UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
Ballinamallard United - Bangor
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Ballinamallard United — 54%
Model estimate: win Ballinamallard United 54.5%, draw 19.1%, win Bangor 26.5%. Model favourite — Ballinamallard United.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Ballinamallard (Sir): probability 54% vs 16% on the line (odds 6.10)
- • edge over the line +38 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Ballinamallard United - Bangor July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 6.50 / X 4.80 / 2 1.40
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Ballinamallard United - Bangor
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.16 46.3% |
| yes | 1.65 60.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.15 87.0% |
| 1x | 2.75 36.4% |
| x2 | 1.08 92.6% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 5.80 17.2% | |
| X | 2.60 38.5% |
| 1.84 54.4% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.21 82.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.12 47.2% |
| Under 0.5 | 3.91 25.6% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.64 61.0% |
Bangor
Ards (Sir)
Full head-to-head historyBallinamallard United - Bangor
Match history
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The Ballinamallard United - Bangor breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form