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31.07.2026 16:45 UTC
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31.07.2026 16:45 UTC
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UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
Birmingham City - Barselona ๐ช๐ธ
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Not started
B
Barselona ๐ช๐ธ
๐ฏ PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Barselona ๐ช๐ธ โ 54%
Pure model vs market (2 ยท Barselona ๐ช๐ธ): model 19% ยท market 55% ฮ โ36 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Birmingham City 23.6%, draw 22.8%, win Barselona ๐ช๐ธ 53.6%. Model favourite โ Barselona ๐ช๐ธ.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Birmingham City (odds2.31)
Score 2:0
confidence 68%
- • Model backs Birmingem ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ: probability 68% vs 43% on the line (odds 2.31)
- • edge over the line +25 pp โ value pick
- • Expected score 2:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Birmingham City - Barselona ๐ช๐ธ July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Barselona ๐ช๐ธ. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 4.40 / X 4.05 / 2 1.70
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin โ for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.2%
1
21.4%
X
23.2%
2
55.4%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds โ reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line โ for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1
3.95
โ 4.30
1X2 X
3.95
โ 4.05
1X2 P2
1.80
โ 1.70
โ odds shortened (money on this outcome), โ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Birmingham City - Barselona ๐ช๐ธ
Form
4/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Birmingham City
21.1%
23.6%
Draw
23.0%
22.8%
draw risk
Barselona ๐ช๐ธ
55.8%
53.6%
market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
23.6% / 22.8% / 53.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,877 / 1,500
Birmingham City / Barselona ๐ช๐ธ
RD
204 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,468-2,286 / 800-2,200
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.70
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 53.6%
X
4.05
Fonbet ยท draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
4.40
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 23.6%
Double chance
12
1.22
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 77.2%
1X
2.10
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 46.4%
X2
1.19
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 76.4%
Handicap
2 -1
1.07
Fonbet ยท line only
2 +1
2.05
Fonbet ยท line only
2 0
1.30
Fonbet ยท line only
1 -1
6.30
Fonbet ยท line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.48
Fonbet ยท line only
Under 2.5
2.45
Fonbet ยท line only
Both teams to score
No
2.50
Fonbet ยท line only
Yes
1.50
Fonbet ยท line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.50 40.0% | 2.48 40.3% |
| yes | 1.50 66.7% | 1.50 66.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.18 84.8% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.22 82.0% |
| 1x | 2.05 48.8% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.10 47.6% |
| x2 | 1.16 86.2% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.19 84.0% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 4.61 21.7% | |
| X | 2.38 42.0% |
| 2.16 46.3% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.12 47.2% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.64 61.0% |
Match center
Odds ยท 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 4.6 (Betcity) ยท X 4.2 (Betcity) ยท 2 1.72 (Winline)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 4.3 | 4 | 1.7 |
| Winline | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.72 |
| Fonbet | 4.3 | 4 | 1.7 |
| Betcity | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.64 |
| Liga Stavok | 4.1 | 3.85 | 1.71 |
Source: ruscore ยท line comparison
Birmingham City
W
W
W
W
Birmingham City
2:1
Kryu ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Kryu ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Birmingham City
1:0
Berton Albion ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Berton Albion ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Birmingham City
3:0
Solikhall ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Solikhall ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Birmingham City
3:1
Khaddersfild ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
4
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2.3
Scored
0.5
Conceded
12
Points
Barselona ๐ช๐ธ
W
Barselona ๐ช๐ธ
4:1
Europe ๐ช๐ธ
1
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
4.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyBirmingham City - Barselona ๐ช๐ธ
Birmingham City
0
matches total
Biggest win
โ
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
โ
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
โ
draw with the most goals
Match history
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