Cacereno face Guadalajara on August 5, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.
Recent form (W-D-L): Cacereno 3-1-1, Guadalajara 1-3-1. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1Cacereno — 48%
Pure model vs market (1 · Cacereno): model 44% · market 48%Δ −4 ppmodel estimates below the market
48%1
1 · Cacereno47.7%
X · draw28.1%
2 · Guadalajara24.2%
Model estimate: win Cacereno 47.7%, draw 28.1%, win Guadalajara 24.2%. Model favourite — Cacereno.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Cacereno (odds1.94)Score 2:1confidence 52%
•Model backs Kasereno 🇪🇸: probability 52% vs 52% on the line (odds 1.94)
•no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
•Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Cacereno - Guadalajara August 5, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Cacereno. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.90 / X 3.35 / 2 3.95
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.8%
4 books
148.0%
X28.5%
223.5%
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.92↓ 1.90
1X2 X3.30↑ 3.35
1X2 P23.90↑ 3.95
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Cacereno2:1Guadalajara
11.95
X3.10
23.95
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Cacereno48.0%47.7%market and model agree
Draw28.5%28.1%draw risk
Guadalajara23.5%24.2%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P247.7% / 28.1% / 24.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
23.95
Fonbet · no value · model 24.2%
X3.35
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
11.90
Fonbet · no value · model 47.7%
Double chance
121.28
Fonbet · no value · model 71.9%
1X1.20
Fonbet · no value · model 75.8%
X21.80
Fonbet · no value · model 52.3%
Handicap
2 -11.42
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.51.87
market consensus · line only
2 02.65
Fonbet · line only
1 -0.51.91
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.51.95
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.51.75
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No1.95
market consensus · line only
Yes1.86
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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