PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
30.07.2026 13:30 UTC
30.07.2026 13:30 UTC
Not started

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Cavese - Sarnese

Football
C
Cavese
- : -
Not started
S
Sarnese
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Cavese — 61%

Pure model vs market (1 · Cavese): model 44% · market 62% Δ −18 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Cavese ✓ Pick60.5%
market62%
X · draw22.0%
market22%
2 · Sarnese17.5%
market16%

Model estimate: win Cavese 60.5%, draw 22.0%, win Sarnese 17.5%. Model favourite — Cavese.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Cavese (odds1.50) Score 2:1 confidence 60%
  • • Model backs Kaveze 1919 🇮🇹: probability 60% vs 66% on the line (odds 1.50)
  • • no edge over the line (-7 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cavese - Sarnese July 30, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Cavese. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.50 / X 4.20 / 2 5.60

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 ✓ Pick 61.5%
X 22.0%
2 16.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.50 → 1.50
1X2 X 4.20 → 4.20
1X2 P2 5.50 ↑ 5.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Cavese 3 : 1 Sarnese
11.47
X4.05
25.76

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 30.07.2026 13:30 UTC
Match center

Cavese - Sarnese

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cavese 61.5% 60.5% market and model agree
Draw 22.0% 22.0% draw risk
Sarnese 16.5% 17.5%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 60.5% / 22.0% / 17.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Cavese / Sarnese
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.60 Fonbet · no value · model 17.5%
X 4.20 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.50 Fonbet · no value · model 60.5%
Double chance
12 1.19 Fonbet · no value · model 78.0%
1X 1.11 Fonbet · no value · model 82.5%
X2 2.40 Fonbet · no value · model 39.5%
Handicap
2 -1 1.88 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.87 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.82 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.02 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.92 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.92 52.1%
yes 1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
12 1.19 84.0% 1.19 84.0%
1x 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1%
x2 2.40 41.7% 2.40 41.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.03 49.3%
X 2.32 43.1%
5.70 17.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.30 76.9%
Over 1 1.68 59.5%
Over 1.5 2.47 40.5%
Under 0.5 3.21 31.2%
Under 1 2.06 48.5%
Under 1.5 1.48 67.6%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCavese - Sarnese

Cavese
0 matches total
Sarnese
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history