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Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
05.08.2026 18:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
05.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Not started

Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage

Cesena - Vis Pesaro

Football
C
Cesena
- : -
Not started
V
Vis Pesaro

Cesena go head-to-head with Vis Pesaro on August 5, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.

Recent form (W-D-L): Cesena 3-0-0, Vis Pesaro 0-1-1. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Cesena — 65%

Pure model vs market (1 · Cesena): model 63% · market 65% Δ −2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Cesena ✓ Pick64.6%
market65%
X · draw19.4%
market20%
2 · Vis Pesaro16.0%
market16%

Model estimate: win Cesena 64.6%, draw 19.4%, win Vis Pesaro 16.0%. Model favourite — Cesena.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Cesena (odds1.75) Score 2:1 confidence 57%
  • • Model backs Chezena 🇮🇹: probability 57% vs 57% on the line (odds 1.75)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cesena - Vis Pesaro August 5, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Cesena. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.40 / X 4.70 / 2 6.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.5% 4 books · best price +1.4%
1 ✓ Pick 64.7%
X 19.5%
2 15.8%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.40 → 1.40
1X2 X 4.70 → 4.70
1X2 P2 6.40 → 6.40

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Friendlies Clubs
League table
Cesena
#856 ptsGP 22-0-04:0
Vis Pesaro
#12510 ptsGP 20-0-21:10
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Cesena
W-D-L 7-1-2 Scored 2.39 Conceded 0.49 xG 2.34 xGA 0.83
Vis Pesaro
W-D-L 0-0-8 Scored 0.65 Conceded 3.98 xG 0.54 xGA 2.78

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Cesena 3 : 1 Vis Pesaro
11.40
X4.70
27.17

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 05.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 65.9% @ 1.40 / X 19.6% @ 4.70 / 2 14.4% @ 6.40
Match center

Cesena - Vis Pesaro

Form 3/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cesena 64.7% 64.6% market and model agree
Draw 19.5% 19.4% draw risk
Vis Pesaro 15.8% 16.0%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 64.6% / 19.4% / 16.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,816 / 1,429 Cesena / Vis Pesaro
RD 241 / 259 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,334-2,297 / 911-1,947 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.40 Fonbet · no value · model 16.0%
X 4.70 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.40 Fonbet · no value · model 64.6%
Double chance
12 1.15 Fonbet · no value · model 80.6%
1X 1.08 Fonbet · no value · model 84.0%
X2 2.75 Fonbet · no value · model 35.4%
Handicap
2 0 4.22 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.18 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.53 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.42 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.95 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.11 90.1% 1.15 87.0% 1.15 87.0%
1x 1.09 91.7% 1.12 89.3% 1.08 92.6%
x2 2.45 40.8% 2.60 38.5% 2.75 36.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.81 55.3%
X 2.62 38.2%
6.00 16.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.22 45.1%
Under 1.5 1.59 62.9%
Match center
Cesena
W W W
01.08 18:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Cesena 3:0 Fossombrone 🇮🇹
25.07 13:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Cesena 1:0 AK Karpi 🇮🇹
21.07 13:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Cesena 5:0 Sampierana 🇮🇹
3 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
9 Points
Vis Pesaro
D L
31.07 13:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Vis Pesaro 0:0 Benevento 🇮🇹
23.07 13:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Vis Pesaro 0:8 Venetsiya 🇮🇹Venetsiya 🇮🇹
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
4.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCesena - Vis Pesaro

Cesena
0 matches total
Vis Pesaro
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history