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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

29.07.2026 15:30 UTC Match prediction

29.07.2026 15:30 UTC

Finished

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Deportivo 🇪🇸 - Lugo

Football

Deportivo 🇪🇸

2 : 0

Finished

Lugo

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Deportivo 🇪🇸 — 63%

1 · Deportivo 🇪🇸 ✓ Pick62.7%

market77%

X · draw17.4%

market14%

2 · Lugo20.0%

market8%

Model estimate: win Deportivo 🇪🇸 62.7%, draw 17.4%, win Lugo 20.0%. Model favourite — Deportivo 🇪🇸.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Deportivo 🇪🇸 (odds2.50) Score 2:0 Over 0.5 (odds1.43) ✓ Handicap H1 +0 (odds1.48) ✓ confidence 63% ✓ outcome correct · exact score

• Model backs Deportivo 🇪🇸: probability 63% vs 40% on the line (odds 2.50)
• edge over the line +23 pp — value pick
• Expected score 2:0
• Total: Over 0.5: model expects a total of ~2 goals
• at line 0.5 (odds 1.43)
• Handicap F1 +0: score forecast 2:0 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.48).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportivo 🇪🇸 - Lugo July 29, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Deportivo 🇪🇸.

Line favourite market consensus: Deportivo 🇪🇸. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.24 / X 6.70 / 2 11.50
Glicko: Deportivo 🇪🇸 62.7% / X 17.4% / Lugo 20.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.3%

1 ✓ Pick 77.3%

X 14.3%

2 8.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 2.40 → 2.40

1X2 X 2.60 ↓ 2.20

1X2 2 3.40 ↑ 4.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Deportivo 🇪🇸 1 : 3 Lugo

Score prediction: third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center

Start 29.07.2026 15:30 UTC

Match center

Deportivo 🇪🇸 - Lugo

Form 2/1 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line Movement

More needed

H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:0

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Deportivo 🇪🇸 38.1% 62.7% market and model agree

Draw 41.6% 17.4% draw risk

Lugo 20.3% 20.0%

1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 62.7% / 17.4% / 20.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,704 / 1,481 Deportivo 🇪🇸 / Lugo

RD 255 / 291 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,195-2,214 / 899-2,063 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 9.20 market consensus · no value · model 20.0%

X 6.37 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 62.7%

Double chance

12 1.08 market consensus · no value · model 82.6%

1X 1.03 market consensus · no value · model 80.0%

X2 3.80 market consensus · no value · model 37.3%

Handicap

2 0 7.90 market consensus · line only

1 0 1.06 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.53 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.40 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.73 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.03 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	1.73 57.8%
yes	2.03 49.3%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
12	1.07 93.5%	1.09 91.7%
1x	1.02 98.0%	1.04 96.2%
x2	3.80 26.3%	3.80 26.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	1.64 61.0%
X	2.65 37.7%
	8.80 11.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1.5	2.25 44.4%
Under 1.5	1.57 63.7%

Match center

Deportivo 🇪🇸

D W

25.07 15:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Deportivo 🇪🇸 0:0 Real Ovedo 🇪🇸

18.07 16:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Deportivo 🇪🇸 4:0 Kompostela 🇪🇸

1 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.0 Scored

0.0 Conceded

4 Points

Lugo

25.07 15:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Lugo 1:1 Selta (B) 🇪🇸

0 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

1 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDeportivo 🇪🇸 - Lugo

Deportivo 🇪🇸

0 matches total

Lugo

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Deportivo 🇪🇸 - Lugo

AI match prediction Deportivo 🇪🇸 - Lugo July 29, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Score prediction

Buy the full AI analysis

Deportivo 🇪🇸 - Lugo

What data is collected and where it is shown

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Match history