Match center
Start
04.07.2026 20:00 UTC
04.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
Russia. Super Cup. Nizhniy Novgorod
Gremio π§π· - Shapekoense π§π·
1
:
2
Finished
S
Shapekoense π§π·
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
π Β«Formula lockΒ»
1Gremio π§π· β 56%
The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone β historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Gremio π§π· - Shapekoense π§π· July 4, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Gremio π§π·. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.57 / X 3.85 / 2 5.40
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.2%
1
58.9%
X
24.0%
2
17.1%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Gremio π§π· - Shapekoense π§π·
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
5.40
Fonbet Β· line only
X
3.85
Fonbet Β· line only
1
1.57
Fonbet Β· line only
Double chance
12
1.22
Fonbet Β· line only
1X
1.12
Fonbet Β· line only
X2
2.25
Fonbet Β· line only
Handicap
2 -1
1.75
Fonbet Β· line only
2 +1
1.79
market consensus Β· line only
2 0
3.80
Fonbet Β· line only
1 -1
1.95
Fonbet Β· line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.81
market consensus Β· line only
Under 2.5
1.89
market consensus Β· line only
Both teams to score
No
1.88
Fonbet Β· line only
Yes
1.82
Fonbet Β· line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.88 53.2% | 1.83 54.6% |
| yes | 1.82 55.0% | 1.92 52.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.15 87.0% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.22 82.0% |
| 1x | 1.04 96.2% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.12 89.3% |
| x2 | 2.07 48.3% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.25 44.4% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.12 47.2% | |
| X | 2.20 45.5% |
| 5.70 17.5% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.79 55.9% |
| Under 1 | 1.92 52.1% |
Match center
Full head-to-head historyGremio π§π· - Shapekoense π§π·
Gremio π§π·
0
matches total
Biggest win
β
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
β
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
β
draw with the most goals