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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
29.07.2026 13:30 UTC
29.07.2026 13:30 UTC
Not started

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Grosseto - San Donato Tavarnelle

Football
G
Grosseto
- : -
Not started
S
San Donato Tavarnelle
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Grosseto — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · Grosseto): model 44% · market 54% Δ −10 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Grosseto54.1%
X · draw25.7%
2 · San Donato Tavarnelle20.2%

Model estimate: win Grosseto 54.1%, draw 25.7%, win San Donato Tavarnelle 20.2%. Model favourite — Grosseto.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Grosseto (odds1.68) Score 2:1 confidence 52%
  • • Model backs Grosseto 🇮🇹: probability 52% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.68)
  • • no edge over the line (-7 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Grosseto - San Donato Tavarnelle July 29, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Grosseto.

Line favourite market consensus: Grosseto. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.70 / X 3.50 / 2 4.64
  • 1X2 market: Grosseto 54.0% / X 26.2% / San Donato Tavarnelle 19.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.9%
1 54.0%
X 26.2%
2 19.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.67 → 1.67
1X2 X 3.60 → 3.60
1X2 P2 4.90 → 4.90

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Grosseto 1 : 1 San Donato Tavarnelle

Score prediction: third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 29.07.2026 13:30 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Grosseto 54%
💹 Market Grosseto 5399%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Grosseto - San Donato Tavarnelle

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Grosseto 54.8% 54.1% market and model agree
Draw 25.9% 25.7% draw risk
San Donato Tavarnelle 19.4% 20.2%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 54.1% / 25.7% / 20.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Grosseto / San Donato Tavarnelle
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.90 Fonbet · no value · model 20.2%
X 3.60 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.67 Fonbet · no value · model 54.1%
Double chance
12 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 74.3%
1X 1.14 Fonbet · no value · model 79.8%
X2 2.07 Fonbet · no value · model 45.9%
Handicap
2 -1 1.62 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.61 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.40 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.17 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.78 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.96 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 1xBet
1.70 58.8%
X 3.50 28.6%
4.64 21.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.78 56.2%
yes 1.96 51.0%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
12 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0%
1x 1.16 86.2% 1.14 87.7%
x2 2.03 49.3% 2.07 48.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.25 44.4%
X 2.10 47.6%
5.60 17.9%