Match center
Start
04.07.2026 12:00 UTC
04.07.2026 12:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying round. First leg
Helmond Sport - AEK Larnaka (Kip)
H
Helmond Sport
1
:
2
Finished
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🔒 «Formula lock»
2AEK Larnaka (Kip) — 61%
The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Helmond Sport - AEK Larnaka (Kip) July 4, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: AEK Larnaka (Kip). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 7.10 / X 6.70 / 2 1.03
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 26.1%
1
11.2%
X
11.8%
2
77.0%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Rest and schedule
Team freshness
Helmond Sport
Normal schedule- Rest days: 3
- Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
AEK Larnaka (Kip)
No recent matches
Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.
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Match center
Helmond Sport - AEK Larnaka (Kip)
Form
1/0
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.03
Fonbet · line only
X
6.70
Fonbet · line only
1
6.03
market consensus · line only
Double chance
12
1.07
Fonbet · line only
1X
7.20
Fonbet · line only
X2
1.02
Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1
1.75
market consensus · line only
2 +1
1.45
Fonbet · line only
2 0
1.02
Fonbet · line only
1 +1
2.60
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.09
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
5.70
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.85
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.85
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.85 54.1% | 1.93 51.8% |
| yes | 1.85 54.1% | 1.81 55.3% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.11 90.1% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.07 93.5% |
| 1x | 2.20 45.5% | 2.47 40.5% | 7.20 13.9% |
| x2 | 1.04 96.2% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.02 98.0% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 6.70 14.9% | |
| X | 2.32 43.1% |
| 1.93 51.8% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.63 61.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.24 44.6% |
| Under 1 | 2.14 46.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.58 63.3% |
Match center
Helmond Sport
L
Helmond Sport
0:4
Panatinaikos 🇬🇷
Panatinaikos 🇬🇷
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.0
Scored
4.0
Conceded
0
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyHelmond Sport - AEK Larnaka (Kip)
Helmond Sport
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals