PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
29.07.2026 14:00 UTC
29.07.2026 14:00 UTC
Not started

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Hoffenheim - Holstein Kiel

Football
H
Hoffenheim
- : -
Not started
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Hoffenheim — 73%

Pure model vs market (1 · Hoffenheim): model 55% · market 73% Δ −18 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Hoffenheim ✓ Pick72.7%
market73%
X · draw16.5%
market16%
2 · Holstein Kiel10.8%
market10%

Model estimate: win Hoffenheim 72.7%, draw 16.5%, win Holstein Kiel 10.8%. Model favourite — Hoffenheim.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Hoffenheim (odds1.30) Score 2:0 Under 3.5 (odds1.75) Handicap H1 -1.5 (odds1.78) confidence 61%
  • • Model backs Khoffenkhaym 🇩🇪: probability 61% vs 77% on the line (odds 1.30)
  • • no edge over the line (-16 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:0
  • • Total: Under 3.5: model expects a total of ~2 goals
  • • at line 3.5 (odds 1.75)
  • • Handicap F1 -1.5: score forecast 2:0 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.78).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hoffenheim - Holstein Kiel July 29, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Hoffenheim.

Line favourite market consensus: Hoffenheim. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.25 / X 5.68 / 2 8.81
  • 1X2 market: Hoffenheim 73.4% / X 16.1% / Holstein Kiel 10.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.0%
1 ✓ Pick 73.4%
X 16.2%
2 10.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.30 ↓ 1.28
1X2 X 5.80 ↓ 5.70
1X2 P2 8.50 ↑ 9.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Hoffenheim 3 : 2 Holstein Kiel
11.26
X5.80
29.85

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 29.07.2026 14:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Hoffenheim 73%
💹 Market Hoffenheim 7336%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Hoffenheim - Holstein Kiel

Form 1/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Hoffenheim 73.9% 72.7% market and model agree
Draw 16.2% 16.5% draw risk
Holstein Kiel 9.9% 10.8%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 72.7% / 16.5% / 10.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,706 / 1,528 Hoffenheim / Holstein Kiel
RD 272 / 195 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,163-2,249 / 1,138-1,919 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.50 Fonbet · no value · model 10.8%
X 5.70 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.28 Fonbet · no value · model 72.7%
Double chance
12 1.12 Fonbet · no value · model 83.5%
1X 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 89.2%
X2 3.50 Fonbet · no value · model 27.3%
Handicap
2 -1 2.80 Fonbet · line only
2 0 6.40 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.40 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.07 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.70 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.98 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.78 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0%
X 5.60 17.9% 5.75 17.4% 5.50 18.2% 5.60 17.9% 5.50 18.2% 5.75 17.4%
8.25 12.1% 10.00 10.0% 7.50 13.3% 8.25 12.1% 9.00 11.1% 9.50 10.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.98 50.5% 2.01 49.8%
yes 1.78 56.2% 1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.12 89.3%
1x — 1.03 97.1% 1.04 96.2%
x2 3.43 29.2% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 21.00 4.8%
0_1 23.00 4.4%
0_2 46.00 2.2%
0_3 101.00 1.0%
1_0 8.50 11.8%
1_1 10.00 10.0%
1_2 19.00 5.3%
1_3 51.00 2.0%
2_0 6.50 15.4%
2_1 7.50 13.3%
2_2 15.00 6.7%
2_3 46.00 2.2%
2_4 126.00 0.8%
3_0 7.00 14.3%
3_1 8.00 12.5%
3_2 17.00 5.9%
3_3 51.00 2.0%
4_0 10.00 10.0%
Match center
Hoffenheim
W
18.07 11:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Hoffenheim 3:0 Frayberg 🇩🇪
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points
Holstein Kiel
L D W W L
25.07 11:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Holstein Kiel 0:3 Maynts 🇩🇪
18.07 12:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Holstein Kiel 2:2 Suonsi 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
15.07 13:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Holstein Kiel 4:1 Al-Akhli 🇸🇦Al-Akhli 🇸🇦
10.07 08:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Holstein Kiel 2:1 Senneryusk 🇩🇰
04.07 10:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Holstein Kiel 1:3 Frederisiya 🇩🇰
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyHoffenheim - Holstein Kiel

Hoffenheim
0 matches total
Holstein Kiel
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history