Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Koriya πͺπΈ β 49%
Pure model vs market (1 Β· Koriya πͺπΈ): model 42% Β· market 48% Ξ β6 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Koriya πͺπΈ 48.9%, draw 25.1%, win Real Avila πͺπΈ 26.0%. Model favourite β Koriya πͺπΈ.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.79 55.9% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.19 84.0% | 1.24 80.7% |
| 1x | 1.19 84.0% | 1.24 80.7% |
| x2 | 1.73 57.8% | 1.85 54.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.56 39.1% | |
| X | 2.08 48.1% |
| 4.36 22.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.42 70.4% |
| Over 1 | 2.02 49.5% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.65 37.7% |
| Under 1 | 1.71 58.5% |
Full head-to-head historyKoriya πͺπΈ - Real Avila πͺπΈ
The Koriya πͺπΈ - Real Avila πͺπΈ breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
