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UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg

05.08.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction

05.08.2026 16:00 UTC

Finished

UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg

Lazio - Ostia Mare

Football

Lazio

4 : 0

Finished

Ostia Mare

Lazio face Ostia Mare on August 5, 2026 in the UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg.

Recent form (W-D-L): Lazio 5-0-0, Ostia Mare 5-0-0. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 89% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Lazio — 89%

Pure model vs market (1 · Lazio): model 62% · market 87% Δ −25 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Lazio ✓ Pick89.4%

market87%

X · draw7.4%

market10%

2 · Ostia Mare3.2%

market3%

Model estimate: win Lazio 89.4%, draw 7.4%, win Ostia Mare 3.2%. Model favourite — Lazio.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Lazio (odds1.71) Score 2:1 confidence 58% ✓ outcome correct

• Model backs Latsio 🇮🇹: probability 58% vs 58% on the line (odds 1.71)
• no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lazio - Ostia Mare August 5, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Glicko: Lazio 89.4% / X 7.4% / Ostia Mare 3.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 11.5%

1 ✓ Pick 87.1%

X 10.0%

2 3.0%

Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 1.02 ↑ 1.05

1X2 X 20.00 ↓ 12.50

1X2 2 100.00 ↓ 39.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Friendlies Clubs

League table

Lazio

#212 ptsGP 44-0-018:4

Ostia Mare

#12040 ptsGP 20-0-20:6

Best price across 10 books

1 1.03 William Hill

X 23.00 Bet365

2 56.00 William Hill

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Lazio 2 : 1 Ostia Mare

11.02

X19.50

236.00

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center

Start 05.08.2026 16:00 UTC

Match center

Lazio - Ostia Mare

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line Movement

More needed

H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:0

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 89.4% fact: home hit / ROI 5.0% / Brier 0.018 / LogLoss 0.112

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 89.4% fact: home hit / ROI 5.0% / Brier 0.018 / LogLoss 0.112

Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 89.4% fact: home hit / ROI 5.0% / Brier 0.018 / LogLoss 0.112

Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 89.4% fact: home hit / ROI 5.0% / Brier 0.018 / LogLoss 0.112

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Lazio 91.1% 89.4% market and model agree

Draw 6.7% 7.4% draw risk

Ostia Mare 2.2% 3.2%

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 89.4% / 7.4% / 3.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,647 / 1,300 Lazio / Ostia Mare

RD 255 / 291 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,138-2,157 / 717-1,882 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 9.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 89.4%

Double chance

12 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 92.6%

1X 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 96.8%

X2 7.30 Fonbet · no value · model 10.6%

Handicap

2 0 10.00 Fonbet · line only

1 0 1.02 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.48 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 2.45 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.01 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.95 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.01 99.0%	1.80 55.6%
yes	11.50 8.7%	1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome	Betcity	Fonbet
12	—	1.02 98.0%
1x	—	1.02 98.0%
x2	11.00 9.1%	7.30 13.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	1.16 86.2%
X	5.30 18.9%
	19.80 5.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1.5	1.49 67.1%
Over 2	1.67 59.9%
Over 2.5	2.00 50.0%
Under 1.5	2.44 41.0%
Under 2	2.07 48.3%
Under 2.5	1.72 58.1%

Match center

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.02 (Pari) · X 20 (Pari) · 2 97 (Pari)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	1.02	20	97
Fonbet	1.02	20	97
Betcity	1.02	19	32
Liga Stavok	1.02	12	35
Winline	—	20	36

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Lazio

W W W W W

2026-08-02 Club Friendly Games 2026

Lazio Ascoli 1:2 Lazio

2026-08-01 Club Friendly Games 2026

Lazio Lazio 6:3 Avellino

2026-07-26 Club Friendly Games 2026

Lazio Lazio 6:0 Flaminia

2026-07-20 Club Friendly Games 2026

Lazio Lazio 3:1 Lazio U20

2026-05-23 Serie A 25/26

Lazio Lazio 2:1 Pisa

5 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

3.8 Scored

1.2 Conceded

15 Points

Ostia Mare

W W W W W

2026-05-13 Serie D, Poule Scudetto 25/26, Group 2

Grosseto 2:3 Ostia Mare Ostia Mare

2026-04-26 Serie D 25/26, Group F

Ostia Mare 1:0 Termoli Ostia Mare

2026-04-19 Serie D 25/26, Group F

Ostia Mare 2:1 L'Aquila Ostia Mare

2026-04-12 Serie D 25/26, Group F

San Nicolo 1:2 Ostia Mare Ostia Mare

2026-04-02 Serie D 25/26, Group F

Ostia Mare 3:0 Chieti Ostia Mare

5 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

2.2 Scored

0.8 Conceded

15 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLazio - Ostia Mare

Lazio

0 matches total

Ostia Mare

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Lazio - Ostia Mare

AI match prediction Lazio - Ostia Mare August 5, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Statistics and model

Score prediction

Buy the full AI analysis

Lazio - Ostia Mare

What data is collected and where it is shown

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Match history