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Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
04.08.2026 12:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 12:00 UTC
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Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage

Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ - Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ

Football
Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
- : -
Not started
M
Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ

Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ meet Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ on August 4, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.

Recent form (W-D-L): Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 1-3-1, Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 1-0-1. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model Β· comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ β€” 60%

Pure model vs market (1 Β· Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ): model 46% Β· market 61% Ξ” βˆ’15 pp model estimates below the market

1 Β· Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ59.7%
market61%
X Β· draw22.2%
market22%
2 Β· Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ18.1%
market17%

Model estimate: win Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 59.7%, draw 22.2%, win Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 18.1%. Model favourite β€” Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ (odds2.15) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ: probability 50% vs 47% on the line (odds 2.15)
  • • edge over the line +3 pp β€” value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ - Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ August 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.59 / X 4.10 / 2 5.30

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.9% 3 books Β· best price +6.0%
1 60.6%
X 22.2%
2 17.3%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β€” reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 04.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Market 1 59.2% @ 1.59 / X 23.0% @ 4.10 / 2 17.8% @ 5.30
Match center

Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ - Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ

Form 5/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 60.6% 59.7% market and model agree
Draw 22.2% 22.2% draw risk
Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 17.3% 18.1%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 59.7% / 22.2% / 18.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,568 / 1,526 Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ / Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
RD 188 / 240 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,191-1,945 / 1,046-2,007 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.14 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 18.1%
X 4.03 market consensus Β· draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.52 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 59.7%
Double chance
12 1.17 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 77.8%
1X 1.10 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 81.9%
X2 2.30 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 40.3%
Handicap
2 +1 1.82 market consensus Β· line only
1 -1 1.89 market consensus Β· line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.65 market consensus Β· line only
Under 2.5 2.10 market consensus Β· line only
Both teams to score
No 2.06 market consensus Β· line only
Yes 1.71 market consensus Β· line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.06 48.5%
yes 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.14 87.7% 1.19 84.0%
1x 1.07 93.5% 1.12 89.3%
x2 2.20 45.5% 2.40 41.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.15 46.5%
X 2.27 44.1%
5.10 19.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.65 60.6%
Under 1 2.11 47.4%
Match center
Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
D W D D L
28.07 14:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 0:0 Real Madrid πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΈReal Madrid πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
24.07 08:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 2:0 Penafiel πŸ‡΅πŸ‡Ή
22.07 08:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 0:0 Nacional πŸ‡΅πŸ‡Ή
17.07 06:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 0:0 Albasete πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
11.07 15:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Leganes πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 1:2 Levante πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
0.6 Scored
0.4 Conceded
6 Points
Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
W L
28.07 10:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 2:0 Al-Nasr πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¦
25.07 15:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Merida AD πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 0:4 Benfika (B) πŸ‡΅πŸ‡Ή
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points