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Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
30.07.2026 16:45 UTC Match prediction
30.07.2026 16:45 UTC
Finished

Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27

Leça - Lusitânia Lourosa

Football
L
Leça
0 : 0
Finished
L
Lusitânia Lourosa
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Leça — 50%

1 · Leça49.6%
X · draw19.0%
2 · Lusitânia Lourosa31.3%

Model estimate: win Leça 49.6%, draw 19.0%, win Lusitânia Lourosa 31.3%. Model favourite — Leça.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Leça (odds4.40) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Leka 🇵🇹: probability 50% vs 23% on the line (odds 4.40)
  • • edge over the line +27 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leça - Lusitânia Lourosa July 30, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lusitânia Lourosa.

Line favourite market consensus: Lusitânia Lourosa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.26 / X 3.54 / 2 1.75
  • Glicko: Leça 49.6% / X 19.0% / Lusitânia Lourosa 31.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.9%
1 21.6%
X 25.9%
2 52.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Friendlies Clubs
League table
Leça
#6581 ptsGP 10-1-00:0
ARRAY
Lusitânia Lourosa
#1345 ptsGP 31-2-04:3
ARRAY
Best price across 9 books
1 4.30 Dafabet
X 3.70 Dafabet
2 1.83 Superbet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Leça 1 : 1 Lusitânia Lourosa

Score prediction: third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 16:45 UTC
Market 1 21.6% @ 4.26 / X 25.9% @ 3.54 / 2 52.5% @ 1.75
Match center

Leça - Lusitânia Lourosa

Form 1/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 49.6% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.000 / LogLoss 1.659
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 49.6% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.000 / LogLoss 1.659
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leça 21.6% 49.6% Glicko contrarian
Draw 26.0% 19.0% draw risk
Lusitânia Lourosa 52.5% 31.3% market favourite
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 49.6% / 19.0% / 31.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,292 / 1,350 Leka 🇵🇹 / Lusitania Lourosa
RD 292 / 215 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 709-1,875 / 920-1,779 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.75 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 31.3%
X 3.54 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.26 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 49.6%
Handicap
2 -1 2.37 market consensus · line only
1 +1 1.54 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.91 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.98 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.98 50.5%
yes 1.77 56.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.93 20.3%
X 2.15 46.5%
2.32 43.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.80 55.6%
Under 1 1.91 52.4%

Handicap

Outcome Leon
1.54 64.9%
2.37 42.2%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-1-0, avg 0.0 gls
2026-07-29 · Lesa 0:0 Luzitaniya Loroza
Source: ruscore
Leça
L
15.07 08:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Leça 0:4 Santa Klara 🇵🇹
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
4.0 Conceded
0 Points
Lusitânia Lourosa
D W L L
29.07 06:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Lusitânia Lourosa 3:3 Portu (B) 🇵🇹
25.07 10:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Lusitânia Lourosa 1:0 Akademiko Vizeu 🇵🇹
18.07 10:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Lusitânia Lourosa 0:2 Braga (B) 🇵🇹
15.07 10:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Lusitânia Lourosa 0:1 Famalikan 🇵🇹
1 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.5 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLeça - Lusitânia Lourosa

Leça
0 matches total
Lusitânia Lourosa
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history