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Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
04.08.2026 17:30 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line –Form –H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 17:30 UTC
Not started

Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage

Lisse - Katwijk

Football
L
Lisse
- : -
Not started
K
Katwijk

Lisse meet Katwijk on August 4, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.

Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Katwijk — 43%

Pure model vs market (2 · Katwijk): model 32% · market 43% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Lisse35.1%
X · draw22.1%
2 · Katwijk42.8%

Model estimate: win Lisse 35.1%, draw 22.1%, win Katwijk 42.8%. Model favourite — Katwijk.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Lisse (odds6.40) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Lisse 🇳🇱: probability 50% vs 16% on the line (odds 6.40)
  • • edge over the line +34 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lisse - Katwijk August 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Katwijk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.70 / X 4.30 / 2 2.10

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.4% 4 books
1 34.4%
X 22.1%
2 43.5%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 2.70 → 2.70
1X2 X 4.30 → 4.30
1X2 P2 2.10 → 2.10

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Lisse 1 : 2 Katwijk
12.64
X4.10
22.09

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 04.08.2026 17:30 UTC
Market 1 34.3% @ 2.70 / X 21.6% @ 4.30 / 2 44.1% @ 2.10
Match center

Lisse - Katwijk

Form 0/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lisse 34.4% 35.1%
Draw 22.1% 22.1% draw risk
Katwijk 43.5% 42.8% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.1% / 22.1% / 42.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,481 Lisse / Katwijk
RD 350 / 293 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 895-2,066 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.10 Fonbet · no value · model 42.8%
X 4.30 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.70 Fonbet · no value · model 35.1%
Double chance
12 1.18 Fonbet · no value · model 77.9%
1X 1.65 Fonbet · no value · model 57.2%
X2 1.40 Fonbet · no value · model 64.9%
Handicap
2 -1 1.23 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 2.75 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.67 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 3.60 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.23 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 3.70 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 3.60 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.25 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 3.60 27.8% 3.86 25.9%
yes 1.25 80.0% 1.23 81.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.14 87.7% 1.19 84.0% 1.18 84.8%
1x 1.56 64.1% 1.65 60.6% 1.65 60.6%
x2 1.34 74.6% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.00 33.3%
X 2.69 37.2%
2.53 39.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 1.73 57.8%
Under 1.5 2.00 50.0%
Match center
Katwijk
D
11.07 07:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Katwijk 1:1 Yong Sparta Rotterdam 🇳🇱
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLisse - Katwijk

Lisse
0 matches total
Katwijk
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history