UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying round. First leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying round. First leg
04.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying round. First leg

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 🇧🇴 - Arda Kardzhali

Futbol
L
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 🇧🇴
2 : 0
Finished
A
Arda Kardzhali

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lokomotiv Plovdiv 🇧🇴 - Arda Kardzhali July 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 🇧🇴. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 3.85 / 2 11.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 33.7%
1 74.1%
X 19.4%
2 6.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 🇧🇴
No recent matches
Arda Kardzhali
Normal schedule
  • Rest days: 3
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Match center

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 🇧🇴 - Arda Kardzhali

Form 0/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.20 market consensus · line only
X 3.85 Fonbet · line only
1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.23 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.04 Fonbet · line only
X2 9.50 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 +1 5.80 Fonbet · line only
2 0 8.50 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.09 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 3.60 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.23 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.13 Fonbet · line only
Yes 4.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.13 88.5% 1.93 51.8%
yes 4.80 20.8% 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.20 83.3% 1.29 77.5% 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.46 68.5% 1.59 62.9% 1.04 96.2%
x2 1.26 79.4% 1.36 73.5% 9.50 10.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.66 27.3%
X 2.11 47.4%
2.84 35.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.90 52.6%
Under 1 1.80 55.6%
Match center
Arda Kardzhali
W
01.07 13:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Arda Kardzhali 2:0 Rilski Sportlist 🇧🇴
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points