Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg
Lorka Deportiva 🇪🇸 take on Agilas 🇪🇸 on August 7, 2026 in the Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg.
Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Lorka Deportiva 🇪🇸 — 58%
Model estimate: win Lorka Deportiva 🇪🇸 58.4%, draw 18.3%, win Agilas 🇪🇸 23.3%. Model favourite — Lorka Deportiva 🇪🇸.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.68 59.5% |
| yes | 2.11 47.4% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.27 78.7% | 1.29 77.5% |
| 1x | 1.11 90.1% | 1.72 58.1% |
| x2 | 1.88 53.2% | 1.27 78.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.41 41.5% | |
| X | 2.06 48.5% |
| 5.50 18.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.16 46.3% |
| Under 1 | 1.62 61.7% |
Full head-to-head historyLorka Deportiva 🇪🇸 - Agilas 🇪🇸
The Lorka Deportiva 🇪🇸 - Agilas 🇪🇸 breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
