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30.07.2026 06:00 UTC
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30.07.2026 06:00 UTC
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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Malorka πͺπΈ - Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦
M
Malorka πͺπΈ
-
:
-
Not started
A
Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦
π― PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Malorka πͺπΈ β 37%
Pure model vs market (1 Β· Malorka πͺπΈ): model 46% Β· market 42% Ξ +4 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Malorka πͺπΈ 37.0%, draw 26.5%, win Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦ 36.5%. Model favourite β Malorka πͺπΈ.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Malorka πͺπΈ (odds1.86)
Score 2:1
confidence 54%
- • Model backs Malorka πͺπΈ: probability 54% vs 54% on the line (odds 1.86)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) β informational only
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Malorka πͺπΈ - Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦ July 30, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Malorka πͺπΈ. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.25 / X 3.65 / 2 2.85
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.9%
1
41.6%
X
25.6%
2
32.8%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line β for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1
2.55
β 2.45
1X2 X
3.60
β 3.60
1X2 P2
2.50
β 2.60
β odds shortened (money on this outcome), β drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction β’ nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Malorka πͺπΈ
2
:
1
Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦
12.31
X3.58
22.82
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference β not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Malorka πͺπΈ - Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦
Form
1/2
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Malorka πͺπΈ
36.5%
37.0%
Glicko contrarian
Draw
26.8%
26.5%
draw risk
Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦
36.8%
36.5%
market favourite
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
37.0% / 26.5% / 36.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,699 / 1,679
Malorka πͺπΈ / Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦
RD
291 / 238
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,117-2,281 / 1,204-2,154
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.85
Fonbet Β· Glicko and market diverge Β· not marked as value Β· model 36.5%
X
3.65
Fonbet Β· draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.25
Fonbet Β· Glicko and market diverge Β· not marked as value Β· model 37.0%
Double chance
12
1.25
Fonbet Β· Glicko and market diverge Β· not marked as value Β· model 73.5%
1X
1.40
Fonbet Β· Glicko and market diverge Β· not marked as value Β· model 63.5%
X2
1.60
Fonbet Β· Glicko and market diverge Β· not marked as value Β· model 63.0%
Handicap
2 -1
1.25
Fonbet Β· line only
2 +1
4.20
Fonbet Β· line only
2 0
2.10
Fonbet Β· line only
1 -1
3.35
Fonbet Β· line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.70
Fonbet Β· line only
Under 2.5
2.10
Fonbet Β· line only
Both teams to score
No
2.25
Fonbet Β· line only
Yes
1.60
Fonbet Β· line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.25 44.4% | 2.31 43.3% |
| yes | 1.60 62.5% | 1.57 63.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.20 83.3% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.25 80.0% |
| 1x | 1.35 74.1% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.40 71.4% |
| x2 | 1.46 68.5% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.60 62.5% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.72 36.8% | |
| X | 2.25 44.4% |
| 3.48 28.7% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.62 61.7% |
| Under 1 | 2.16 46.3% |
Match center
Malorka πͺπΈ
W
Malorka πͺπΈ
3:0
Al-Fat πΈπ¦
1
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
3.0
Scored
0.0
Conceded
3
Points
Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦
W
W
Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦
2:1
Las-Palmas πͺπΈ
Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦
3:2
Orlando Payrats πΏπ¦
Orlando Payrats πΏπ¦
2
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2.5
Scored
1.5
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyMalorka πͺπΈ - Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦
Malorka πͺπΈ
0
matches total
Biggest win
β
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
β
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
β
draw with the most goals
Match history
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The Malorka πͺπΈ - Al-Ittikhad πΈπ¦ breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
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