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31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
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31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
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UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
Mansfield Town - Derby County
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Not started
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Derby County — 40%
Pure model vs market (2 · Derby County): model 22% · market 39% Δ −17 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Mansfield Town 34.8%, draw 24.8%, win Derby County 40.5%. Model favourite — Derby County.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Derby County (odds1.89)
Score 0:1
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Derbi Kaunti 🏴: probability 50% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.89)
- • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 0:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Mansfield Town - Derby County July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Derby County. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.60 / X 3.70 / 2 2.35
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.0%
1
35.6%
X
25.0%
2
39.4%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Match center
Mansfield Town - Derby County
Form
3/3
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Mansfield Town
33.3%
34.8%
Draw
25.1%
24.8%
draw risk
Derby County
41.7%
40.5%
market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
34.8% / 24.8% / 40.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,622 / 1,363
Mansfield Town / Derby County
RD
232 / 216
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,157-2,087 / 931-1,796
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.35
Fonbet · no value · model 40.5%
X
3.70
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.60
Fonbet · no value · model 34.8%
Double chance
12
1.23
Fonbet · no value · model 75.2%
1X
1.53
Fonbet · no value · model 59.5%
X2
1.45
Fonbet · no value · model 65.2%
Handicap
2 0
1.75
Fonbet · line only
1 0
1.95
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.59
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.46
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.59 38.6% |
| yes | 1.46 68.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.19 84.0% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.23 81.3% |
| 1x | 1.49 67.1% | 1.59 62.9% | 1.53 65.4% |
| x2 | 1.34 74.6% | 1.41 70.9% | 1.45 69.0% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.03 33.0% | |
| X | 2.34 42.7% |
| 2.92 34.3% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.23 81.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.22 45.1% |
| Under 0.5 | 3.71 27.0% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.59 62.9% |
Match center
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 3.25 (Liga Stavok) · X 3.8 (Liga Stavok) · 2 2.34 (Winline)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 2.75 | 3.75 | 2.25 |
| Winline | 2.55 | 3.55 | 2.34 |
| Fonbet | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| Betcity | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.22 |
| Liga Stavok | 3.25 | 3.8 | 1.94 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Mansfield Town
W
L
W
Mansfield Town
4:0
Alfreton 🏴
Alfreton 🏴
Mansfield Town
3:4
Barrou 🏴
Mansfield Town
2:1
Retford 🏴
2
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
3.0
Scored
1.7
Conceded
6
Points
Derby County
L
L
W
Derby County
1:2
Valensiya 🇪🇸
Derby County
1:3
Frayburg 🇩🇪
Frayburg 🇩🇪
Derby County
2:0
Alfreton 🏴
Alfreton 🏴
1
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.3
Scored
1.7
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyMansfield Town - Derby County
Mansfield Town
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Win probabilities & value flags
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