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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying round. First leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying round. First leg
04.07.2026 10:00 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying round. First leg

Maribor - Zheleznichar Panchevo 🇷🇸

Futbol
M
Maribor
1 : 1
Finished
Z
Zheleznichar Panchevo 🇷🇸

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Maribor - Zheleznichar Panchevo 🇷🇸 July 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 8.50 / X 1.20 / 2 7.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.4%
1 10.8%
X 76.2%
2 13.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Maribor
Normal schedule
  • Rest days: 3
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Zheleznichar Panchevo 🇷🇸
Well rested
  • Rest days: 4
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Match center

Maribor - Zheleznichar Panchevo 🇷🇸

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.00 Fonbet · line only
X 1.20 Fonbet · line only
1 8.50 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 3.80 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.08 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.06 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.70 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 9.00 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 4.10 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.18 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Yes 9.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet
no 1.03 97.1%
yes 9.00 11.1%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 3.80 26.3%
1x 1.08 92.6%
x2 1.06 94.3%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.01 99.0%
1.01 99.0%
1.06 94.3%
1.01 99.0%
9.00 11.1%
10.00 10.0%
7.20 13.9%
11.50 8.7%
2.02 49.5%
10.50 9.5%
11.50 8.7%
6.90 14.5%
12.00 8.3%
1.02 98.0%
1.02 98.0%
1.05 95.2%
1.01 99.0%
1.70 58.8%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 0.5 2.07 48.3%
Over 1 4.10 24.4%
Over 1.5 5.30 18.9%
Over 2 4.40 22.7%
Over 2.5 4.10 24.4%
Over 3 6.40 15.6%
Over 3.5 7.90 12.7%
Over 4 3.80 26.3%
Over 4.5 7.10 14.1%
Under 0.5 1.67 59.9%
Under 1 1.18 84.8%
Under 1.5 1.11 90.1%
Under 2 1.16 86.2%
Under 2.5 1.18 84.8%
Under 3 1.07 93.5%
Under 3.5 1.04 96.2%
Under 4 1.22 82.0%
Under 4.5 1.05 95.2%
Match center
Maribor
D
01.07 10:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Maribor 3:3 TsSKA 1948 🇧🇴
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
1 Points
Zheleznichar Panchevo 🇷🇸
L
30.06 13:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Zheleznichar Panchevo 🇷🇸 0:2 Volfsberger 🇦🇹Volfsberger 🇦🇹
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points