UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Morecambe - Fylde
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Fylde — 40%
Pure model vs market (2 · Fylde): model 19% · market 41% Δ −22 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Morecambe 35.0%, draw 25.4%, win Fylde 39.5%. Model favourite — Fylde.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Morkam 🏴: probability 50% vs 41% on the line (odds 2.46)
- • edge over the line +9 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Morecambe - Fylde July 28, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.80 / X 3.55 / 2 2.26
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Morecambe - Fylde
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.59 38.6% |
| yes | 1.46 68.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.26 79.4% |
| 1x | 1.57 63.7% |
| x2 | 1.41 70.9% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.36 29.8% | |
| X | 2.31 43.3% |
| 2.71 36.9% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.22 82.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.20 45.5% |
| Under 0.5 | 3.81 26.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.60 62.5% |
Form & head-to-head
Odds · 5 bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.35 |
| Winline | 2.55 | 3.65 | 2.31 |
| Fonbet | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.35 |
| Betcity | 2.45 | 3.8 | 2.34 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.55 | 3.7 | 2.34 |
Bamber Bridzh 🏴
Fylde
Uigan 🏴
Khayd 🏴
Blekpul 🏴
Full head-to-head historyMorecambe - Fylde
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Morecambe - Fylde breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form