Newport County face Roma on August 3, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.
Recent form (W-D-L): Newport County 3-0-2, Roma 3-1-1. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2Roma — 78%
Pure model vs market (2 · Roma): model 37% · market 80%Δ −43 ppmodel estimates below the market
78%2
1 · Newport County8.0%
market6%
X · draw14.3%
market14%
2 · Roma ✓ Pick77.7%
market80%
Model estimate: win Newport County 8.0%, draw 14.3%, win Roma 77.7%. Model favourite — Roma.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Newport County (odds8.50)Score 1:0confidence 50%
•Model backs Nyuport 🏴: probability 50% vs 12% on the line (odds 8.50)
•edge over the line +38 pp — value pick
•Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Newport County - Roma August 3, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Roma. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 14.70 / X 6.70 / 2 1.17
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.7%
3 books
15.9%
X13.8%
2 ✓ Pick80.3%
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P114.00↑ 16.00
1X2 X6.90↓ 6.70
1X2 P21.17→ 1.17
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Newport County
Rating 1639
Roma
Rating 1656
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Newport County5.9%8.0%
Draw13.8%14.3%draw risk
Roma80.3%77.7%market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P28.0% / 14.3% / 77.7%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,445 / 1,508
Newport County / Roma
RD193 / 277
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,059-1,831 / 953-2,063
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.17
Fonbet · no value · model 77.7%
X6.70
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
Double chance
121.09
Fonbet · no value · model 85.7%
1X4.70
Fonbet · no value · model 22.3%
Handicap
2 -11.40
market consensus · line only
2 +11.20
Fonbet · line only
2 01.04
Fonbet · line only
1 +13.75
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.51.35
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.52.90
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No1.75
Fonbet · line only
Yes2.03
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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