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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Newry City - Bangor

Football
N
Newry City
- : -
Finished
Bangor
Bangor
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Bangor — 57%

Pure model vs market (2 · Bangor): model 35% · market 10% Δ +25 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Newry City21.9%
X · draw21.5%
2 · Bangor56.6%

Model estimate: win Newry City 21.9%, draw 21.5%, win Bangor 56.6%. Model favourite — Bangor.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Bangor (odds1.38) Score 0:2 confidence 64%
  • • Model backs Bangor (Sir): probability 64% vs 73% on the line (odds 1.38)
  • • no edge over the line (-9 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 0:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newry City - Bangor July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Newry City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.40 / X 3.65 / 2 9.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.4%
1 65.3%
X 25.1%
2 9.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

LIVE

Now in play

score 1:0 · 71'

Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.

LIVE

1X2 probabilities (live, from the line)

71'
65% 25% 10%
Newry City (1) Draw (X) Bangor (2)

Implied probabilities from the Fonbet live line (1/odds, normalized). For reference.

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Match center

Newry City - Bangor

Form 0/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Newry City 20.5% 21.9%
Draw 21.5% 21.5% draw risk
Bangor 57.9% 56.6% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 21.9% / 21.5% / 56.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,530 Newry City / Bangor
RD 350 / 194 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,142-1,918 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.50 Fonbet · weak value +437.3% · model 56.6%
X 3.65 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.40 Fonbet · no value · model 21.9%
Double chance
12 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 78.5%
1X 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 43.4%
X2 2.65 Fonbet · weak value +107.0% · model 78.1%
Handicap
2 -1 1.93 market consensus · line only
2 0 7.20 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.78 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.05 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 3.65 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.22 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.60 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.20 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.60 62.5% 2.54 39.4%
yes 2.20 45.5% 1.48 67.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.13 88.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.25 80.0%
1x 2.05 48.8% 2.23 44.8% 1.05 95.2%
x2 1.12 89.3% 1.17 85.5% 2.65 37.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.67 21.4%
X 2.51 39.8%
2.05 48.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.06 48.5%
Under 1.5 1.68 59.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-2, avg 5.0 gls
2025-01-17 · Nyuri Siti 2:1 Bangor
2024-11-17 · Nyuri Siti 0:3 Bangor
2024-09-06 · Nyuri Siti 4:5 Bangor
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 5.9 (Pari) · X 5.1 (Betcity) · 2 1.44 (Liga Stavok)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 5.9 4.9 1.4
Fonbet 5.9 4.9 1.4
Betcity 5.6 5.1 1.38
Liga Stavok 5.6 4.6 1.44
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Bangor
D W W W L
25.07 12:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Bangor 1:1 Dandela (Sir)
22.07 16:45 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Bangor 5:1 Oksford Sannisayd FK (Sir)
18.07 12:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Bangor 2:1 Moyola (Sir)
16.07 16:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Bangor 2:0 Ards (Sir)Ards (Sir)
11.07 08:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Bangor 2:5 Kuins Yuniversiti (Sir)Kuins Yuniversiti (Sir)
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNewry City - Bangor

Newry City
0 matches total
Bangor
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history