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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

29.07.2026 13:00 UTC

Not started

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Palermo - Iraklis Thessaloniki

Football

Palermo

- : -

Not started

Iraklis Thessaloniki

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Palermo — 59%

Pure model vs market (1 · Palermo): model 64% · market 58% Δ +6 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Palermo ✓ Pick58.6%

market58%

X · draw24.0%

market24%

2 · Iraklis Thessaloniki17.5%

market18%

Model estimate: win Palermo 58.6%, draw 24.0%, win Iraklis Thessaloniki 17.5%. Model favourite — Palermo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Palermo (odds1.57) Score 2:1 Over 2.5 (odds1.73) confidence 52%

• Model backs Palermo 🇮🇹: probability 52% vs 64% on the line (odds 1.57)
• no edge over the line (-11 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 2:1
• Total: Over 2.5: model expects a total of ~3 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 1.73).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Palermo - Iraklis Thessaloniki July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Palermo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.60 / X 3.85 / 2 5.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.7%

1 ✓ Pick 58.0%

X 24.1%

2 17.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 1.60 → 1.60

1X2 X 3.85 → 3.85

1X2 P2 5.20 → 5.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Palermo 2 : 1 Iraklis Thessaloniki

11.62

X3.84

25.27

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center

Start 29.07.2026 13:00 UTC

Match center

Palermo - Iraklis Thessaloniki

Form 4/1 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line Movement

More needed

H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Palermo 58.2% 58.6% market and model agree

Draw 24.4% 24.0% draw risk

Iraklis Thessaloniki 17.4% 17.5%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 58.6% / 24.0% / 17.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,736 / 1,350 Palermo / Iraklis Thessaloniki

RD 200 / 279 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,337-2,135 / 792-1,909 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.20 Fonbet · no value · model 17.5%

X 3.85 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.60 Fonbet · no value · model 58.6%

Double chance

12 1.22 Fonbet · no value · model 76.0%

1X 1.13 Fonbet · no value · model 82.5%

X2 2.20 Fonbet · no value · model 41.4%

Handicap

2 -1 1.73 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 1.74 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.97 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.73 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.96 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.79 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	1.96 51.0%
yes	1.79 55.9%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.17 85.5%	1.23 81.3%	1.22 82.0%
1x	1.07 93.5%	1.13 88.5%	1.13 88.5%
x2	2.10 47.6%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.17 46.1%
X	2.20 45.5%
	5.40 18.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.73 57.8%
Under 1	1.99 50.3%

Match center

Palermo

D W L W

25.07 12:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Palermo 2:2 Nyurnberg 🇩🇪

22.07 13:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Palermo 7:0 Paradiso 🇨🇭

18.07 10:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Palermo 0:1 Ingolshtadt 🇩🇪

15.07 13:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Palermo 8:0 FC Gherdeina 🇮🇹

2 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

4.3 Scored

0.8 Conceded

7 Points

Iraklis Thessaloniki

25.07 12:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Iraklis Thessaloniki 0:2 Bolonya 🇮🇹

0 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

0.0 Scored

2.0 Conceded

0 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyPalermo - Iraklis Thessaloniki

Palermo

0 matches total

Iraklis Thessaloniki

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Palermo - Iraklis Thessaloniki

AI match prediction Palermo - Iraklis Thessaloniki July 29, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Score prediction

Buy the full AI analysis

Palermo - Iraklis Thessaloniki

What data is collected and where it is shown

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Match history