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30.07.2026 13:00 UTC
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30.07.2026 13:00 UTC
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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Parma ๐ฎ๐น - Arezzo
P
Parma ๐ฎ๐น
-
:
-
Not started
A
Arezzo
๐ฏ PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Parma ๐ฎ๐น โ 55%
Pure model vs market (1 ยท Parma ๐ฎ๐น): model 44% ยท market 56% ฮ โ12 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Parma ๐ฎ๐น 55.4%, draw 23.6%, win Arezzo 21.0%. Model favourite โ Parma ๐ฎ๐น.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Arezzo (odds3.64)
Score 0:1
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Aretstso ๐ฎ๐น: probability 50% vs 27% on the line (odds 3.64)
- • edge over the line +23 pp โ value pick
- • Expected score 0:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Parma ๐ฎ๐น - Arezzo July 30, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Parma ๐ฎ๐น. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.65 / X 3.90 / 2 4.60
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin โ for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.0%
1
56.1%
X
23.7%
2
20.1%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds โ reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line โ for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1
1.65
โ 1.65
1X2 X
3.90
โ 3.90
1X2 P2
4.60
โ 4.60
โ odds shortened (money on this outcome), โ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Parma ๐ฎ๐น - Arezzo
Form
0/4
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Parma ๐ฎ๐น
56.1%
55.4%
market and model agree
Draw
23.7%
23.6%
draw risk
Arezzo
20.1%
21.0%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
55.4% / 23.6% / 21.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,500 / 1,513
Parma ๐ฎ๐น / Arezzo
RD
350 / 228
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
800-2,200 / 1,056-1,969
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.60
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 21.0%
X
3.90
Fonbet ยท draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.65
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 55.4%
Double chance
12
1.20
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 76.4%
1X
1.16
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 79.0%
X2
2.10
Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 44.6%
Handicap
2 -1
1.67
Fonbet ยท line only
2 +1
1.67
market consensus ยท line only
2 0
3.30
market consensus ยท line only
1 -1
2.07
Fonbet ยท line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.62
Fonbet ยท line only
Under 2.5
2.15
Fonbet ยท line only
Both teams to score
No
2.15
market consensus ยท line only
Yes
1.65
market consensus ยท line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.15 46.5% |
| yes | 1.65 60.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% |
| 1x | 1.19 84.0% | 1.16 86.2% |
| x2 | 2.08 48.1% | 2.10 47.6% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.19 45.7% | |
| X | 2.28 43.9% |
| 4.87 20.5% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.61 62.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.37 42.2% |
| Under 1 | 2.18 45.9% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.52 65.8% |
Match center
Odds ยท 2 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.82 (Winline) ยท X 4 (Betcity) ยท 2 4.4 (Betcity)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winline | 1.82 | 3.6 | 3.65 |
| Betcity | 1.7 | 4 | 4.4 |
Source: ruscore ยท line comparison
Arezzo
L
L
D
W
Arezzo
1:3
Albinoleffe ๐ฎ๐น
Arezzo
2:3
Atalanta ๐ฎ๐น
Arezzo
1:1
Folgore Charateze ๐ฎ๐น
Arezzo
3:1
Napoli ๐ฎ๐น
1
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.8
Scored
2.0
Conceded
4
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyParma ๐ฎ๐น - Arezzo
Parma ๐ฎ๐น
0
matches total
Biggest win
โ
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
โ
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
โ
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form