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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
28.07.2026 16:00 UTC
28.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Quick Boys - Jong AZ Alkmaar

Football
Q
Quick Boys
- : -
Finished
J
Jong AZ Alkmaar
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Jong AZ Alkmaar — 42%

Pure model vs market (2 · Jong AZ Alkmaar): model 52% · market 42% Δ +10 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Quick Boys33.1%
X · draw24.5%
2 · Jong AZ Alkmaar42.4%

Model estimate: win Quick Boys 33.1%, draw 24.5%, win Jong AZ Alkmaar 42.4%. Model favourite — Jong AZ Alkmaar.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.55) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 28% on the line (odds 3.55)
  • • edge over the line +22 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Quick Boys - Jong AZ Alkmaar July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Jong AZ Alkmaar.

Line favourite market consensus: Jong AZ Alkmaar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.59 / X 3.86 / 2 2.16
  • 1X2 market: Quick Boys 34.9% / X 23.5% / Jong AZ Alkmaar 41.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.8%
1 34.8%
X 23.4%
2 41.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Quick Boys 4 : 2 Jong AZ Alkmaar
12.73
X3.64
22.17

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

LIVE

Now in play

score 1:3 · 86'

Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 16:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Jong AZ Alkmaar 42%
💹 Market Jong AZ Alkmaar 4170%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Quick Boys - Jong AZ Alkmaar

Form 2/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Quick Boys 33.4% 33.1%
Draw 24.8% 24.5% draw risk
Jong AZ Alkmaar 41.8% 42.4% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 33.1% / 24.5% / 42.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,463 / 1,807 Quick Boys / Jong AZ Alkmaar
RD 255 / 206 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 952-1,974 / 1,396-2,219 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.17 Fonbet · no value · model 42.4%
X 4.90 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.61 market consensus · no value · model 33.1%
Double chance
12 1.13 Fonbet · no value · model 75.5%
1X 4.20 Fonbet · weak value +142.0% · model 57.6%
X2 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 66.9%
Handicap
2 0 2.35 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.52 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.27 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.25 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.50 40.0% 2.74 36.5% 2.38 42.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.50 40.0% 2.70 37.0%
X 3.75 26.7% 3.62 27.6% 4.33 23.1% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 3.90 25.6%
2.20 45.5% 2.17 46.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.27 78.7% 3.15 31.8%
yes 3.25 30.8% 1.33 75.2%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.19 84.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.13 88.5%
1x 1.50 66.7% 1.60 62.5% 4.20 23.8%
x2 1.32 75.8% 1.39 71.9% 1.30 76.9%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 19.00 5.3%
0_1 13.00 7.7%
0_2 15.00 6.7%
0_3 23.00 4.4%
0_4 41.00 2.4%
0_5 91.00 1.1%
1_0 13.00 7.7%
1_1 8.00 12.5%
1_2 8.50 11.8%
1_3 12.00 8.3%
1_4 23.00 4.4%
1_5 56.00 1.8%
1_6 126.00 0.8%
2_0 17.00 5.9%
2_1 9.00 11.1%
2_2 9.00 11.1%
2_3 13.00 7.7%
2_4 26.00 3.9%
Match center
Quick Boys
L W
11.07 10:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Quick Boys 1:3 Den Boskh 🇳🇱
04.07 10:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Quick Boys 2:1 Villem II 🇳🇱
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.5 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Jong AZ Alkmaar
W W W D
25.07 09:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Jong AZ Alkmaar 3:2 Yong Sparta Rotterdam 🇳🇱
17.07 08:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Jong AZ Alkmaar 3:0 Yong Ayaks 🇳🇱
11.07 09:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Jong AZ Alkmaar 3:1 FK Volendam 🇳🇱
04.07 11:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Jong AZ Alkmaar 1:1 Valveyk 🇳🇱
3 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.5 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points