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29.07.2026 16:00 UTC
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29.07.2026 16:00 UTC
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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Real Ovedo πͺπΈ - Ponferradina πͺπΈ
R
Real Ovedo πͺπΈ
-
:
-
Not started
P
Ponferradina πͺπΈ
π― PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model Β· comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Real Ovedo πͺπΈ β 58%
Pure model vs market (1 Β· Real Ovedo πͺπΈ): model 47% Β· market 59% Ξ β12 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Real Ovedo πͺπΈ 58.0%, draw 23.7%, win Ponferradina πͺπΈ 18.2%. Model favourite β Real Ovedo πͺπΈ.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Real Ovedo πͺπΈ (odds1.54)
Score 2:1
confidence 58%
- • Model backs Real Ovedo πͺπΈ: probability 58% vs 65% on the line (odds 1.54)
- • no edge over the line (-7 pp) β informational only
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Real Ovedo πͺπΈ - Ponferradina πͺπΈ July 29, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Real Ovedo πͺπΈ. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.55 / X 3.83 / 2 5.50
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.8%
1
59.3%
X
24.0%
2
16.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction β’ nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Real Ovedo πͺπΈ
0
:
0
Ponferradina πͺπΈ
Score prediction: third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference β not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Real Ovedo πͺπΈ - Ponferradina πͺπΈ
Form
2/0
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Real Ovedo πͺπΈ
58.8%
58.0%
market and model agree
Draw
23.8%
23.7%
draw risk
Ponferradina πͺπΈ
17.4%
18.2%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
58.0% / 23.7% / 18.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,541 / 1,500
Real Ovedo πͺπΈ / Ponferradina πͺπΈ
RD
255 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,031-2,051 / 800-2,200
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
5.30
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 18.2%
X
3.81
market consensus Β· draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.54
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 58.0%
Double chance
12
1.20
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 76.3%
1X
1.11
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 81.8%
X2
2.20
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 42.0%
Handicap
2 +1
1.76
market consensus Β· line only
1 -1
1.95
market consensus Β· line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.89
market consensus Β· line only
Under 2.5
1.81
market consensus Β· line only
Both teams to score
No
1.78
market consensus Β· line only
Yes
1.96
market consensus Β· line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.78 56.2% |
| yes | 1.96 51.0% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.17 85.5% | 1.22 82.0% |
| 1x | 1.08 92.6% | 1.13 88.5% |
| x2 | 2.10 47.6% | 2.30 43.5% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.13 47.0% | |
| X | 2.18 45.9% |
| 5.80 17.2% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.36 73.5% |
| Over 1 | 1.85 54.1% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.90 34.5% |
| Under 1 | 1.85 54.1% |
Match center
Real Ovedo πͺπΈ
D
D
Real Ovedo πͺπΈ
0:0
Deportivo πͺπΈ
Real Ovedo πͺπΈ
0:0
Al-Kadisiya πΈπ¦
0
Wins
2
Draws
0
Losses
0.0
Scored
0.0
Conceded
2
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyReal Ovedo πͺπΈ - Ponferradina πͺπΈ
Real Ovedo πͺπΈ
0
matches total
Biggest win
β
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
β
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
β
draw with the most goals
Match history
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The Real Ovedo πͺπΈ - Ponferradina πͺπΈ breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form