Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
Rotherham meet Derby County on August 4, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.
Recent form (W-D-L): Rotherham 2-2-1, Derby County 2-0-3. Sportsbooks lean towards Derby County, an implied 55% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Derby County — 53%
Pure model vs market (2 · Derby County): model 23% · market 55% Δ −32 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Rotherham 23.5%, draw 23.0%, win Derby County 53.4%. Model favourite — Derby County.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Derby County.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 14 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.60 21.7% | 4.40 22.7% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.05 24.7% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.50 22.2% | |
| X | 3.70 27.0% | 4.05 24.7% | 4.00 25.0% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.75 26.7% |
| 1.64 61.0% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.65 60.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.07 48.3% |
| yes | 1.70 58.8% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.15 87.0% | 1.21 82.6% | 1.20 83.3% |
| 1x | 1.95 51.3% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% |
| x2 | 1.13 88.5% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.17 85.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 0_1 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 0_2 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 0_3 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 0_4 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 0_5 | 51.00 2.0% |
| 0_6 | 101.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 1_1 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 1_2 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 1_3 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 1_4 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 1_5 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 1_6 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 2_0 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 2_1 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 2_2 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 2_3 | 17.00 5.9% |
Derby County
Full head-to-head historyRotherham - Derby County
The Rotherham - Derby County breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
