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Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
04.08.2026 18:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 18:00 UTC
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Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage

Sassuolo - Celta Vigo

Football
S
Sassuolo
- : -
Not started
C
Celta Vigo

Sassuolo meet Celta Vigo on August 4, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.

Recent form (W-D-L): Sassuolo 1-1-0, Celta Vigo 2-1-0. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Sassuolo — 51%

1 · Sassuolo51.5%
X · draw19.3%
2 · Celta Vigo29.2%

Model estimate: win Sassuolo 51.5%, draw 19.3%, win Celta Vigo 29.2%. Model favourite — Sassuolo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Sassuolo (odds2.35) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Sassuolo 🇮🇹: probability 50% vs 43% on the line (odds 2.35)
  • • edge over the line +7 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sassuolo - Celta Vigo August 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Sassuolo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.04 / X 3.73 / 2 3.01

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.1%
1 45.0%
X 24.6%
2 30.5%

Odds source: Leon line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Friendlies Clubs
League table
Sassuolo
#6262 ptsGP 30-2-10:2
Celta Vigo
#2214 ptsGP 21-1-03:2
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Sassuolo
W-D-L 4-5-1 Scored 1.32 Conceded 0.68 xG 1.99 xGA 1.05
Celta Vigo
W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 1.37 Conceded 1.57 xG 1.38 xGA 1.45

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Sassuolo
Rating 1589
Celta Vigo
Rating 1739

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 04.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 45.0% @ 2.04 / X 24.6% @ 3.73 / 2 30.5% @ 3.01
Match center

Sassuolo - Celta Vigo

Form 2/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sassuolo 45.0% 51.5% market and model agree
Draw 24.6% 19.3% draw risk
Celta Vigo 30.5% 29.2%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 51.5% / 19.3% / 29.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,654 / 1,670 Sassuolo 🇮🇹 / Selta 🇪🇸
RD 253 / 258 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,149-2,159 / 1,154-2,185 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.01 market consensus · no value · model 29.2%
X 3.73 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.04 market consensus · weak value +5.0% · model 51.5%
Handicap
2 0 2.29 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.58 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.31 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.57 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.31 43.3%
yes 1.57 63.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.51 39.8%
X 2.45 40.8%
3.40 29.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.09 47.9%
Under 1.5 1.66 60.2%

Handicap

Outcome Leon
1.58 63.3%
2.29 43.7%
Match center
Sassuolo
D W
31.07 15:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Sassuolo 0:0 Folgore Charateze 🇮🇹
22.07 13:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Sassuolo 4:1 Padova 🇮🇹
1 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.5 Conceded
4 Points
Celta Vigo
W W D
29.07 07:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Celta Vigo 1:0 Akademiko Vizeu 🇵🇹
25.07 15:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Celta Vigo 1:0 Sporting Khikhon 🇪🇸
19.07 16:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Celta Vigo 2:2 Braga 🇵🇹Braga 🇵🇹
2 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.3 Scored
0.7 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySassuolo - Celta Vigo

Sassuolo
0 matches total
Celta Vigo
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history