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UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg
UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg
07.08.2026 16:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line –Form –H2H ✓Prediction
07.08.2026 16:00 UTC
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UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg

Seravetstsa 🇮🇹 - Sestri Levante 🇮🇹

Football
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Seravetstsa 🇮🇹
- : -
Not started
S
Sestri Levante 🇮🇹

Seravetstsa 🇮🇹 face Sestri Levante 🇮🇹 on August 7, 2026 in the UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg.

Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Seravetstsa 🇮🇹 — 52%

1 · Seravetstsa 🇮🇹52.1%
X · draw19.4%
2 · Sestri Levante 🇮🇹28.5%

Model estimate: win Seravetstsa 🇮🇹 52.1%, draw 19.4%, win Sestri Levante 🇮🇹 28.5%. Model favourite — Seravetstsa 🇮🇹.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Seravetstsa 🇮🇹 (odds1.67) Score 2:1 confidence 52%
  • • Model backs Seravetstsa 🇮🇹: probability 52% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.67)
  • • no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Seravetstsa 🇮🇹 - Sestri Levante 🇮🇹 August 7, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Seravetstsa 🇮🇹. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.68 / X 3.63 / 2 4.55

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.9% 3 books
1 54.5%
X 25.3%
2 20.2%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Seravetstsa 🇮🇹
54%
1.68
Draw
25%
3.63
Sestri Levante 🇮🇹
20%
4.55
Handicap
Seravetstsa 🇮🇹 (0)
73%
1.27
Sestri Levante 🇮🇹 (0)
27%
3.40
Total
Over 2.5
53%
1.77
Under 2.5
47%
1.97

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Match center
Start 07.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Market 1 54.6% @ 1.68 / X 25.3% @ 3.63 / 2 20.2% @ 4.55
Match center

Seravetstsa 🇮🇹 - Sestri Levante 🇮🇹

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Seravetstsa 🇮🇹 54.5% 52.1% market and model agree
Draw 25.3% 19.4% draw risk
Sestri Levante 🇮🇹 20.2% 28.5%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 52.1% / 19.4% / 28.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Seravetstsa 🇮🇹 / Sestri Levante 🇮🇹
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.48 market consensus · no value · model 28.5%
X 3.61 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 52.1%
Double chance
12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 80.6%
1X 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 71.5%
X2 2.00 market consensus · no value · model 47.9%
Handicap
2 +1 1.64 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.38 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.17 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.27 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.76 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.95 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.18 84.8% 1.24 80.7%
1x 1.11 90.1% 1.16 86.2%
x2 1.92 52.1% 2.07 48.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.22 45.1%
X 2.27 44.1%
4.79 20.9%

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
— — 2.17 46.1%
1.26 79.4% 1.27 78.7% —
— — 1.64 61.0%
3.35 29.9% 3.40 29.4% —

Team To Score First

Outcome Leon
1.62 61.7%
X 11.30 8.9%
2.68 37.3%