Socuellamos face Puertollano on August 4, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.
Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1Socuellamos — 36%
Pure model vs market (1 · Socuellamos): model 44% · market 36%Δ +8 ppmodel estimates above the market
36%1
1 · Socuellamos36.3%
X · draw27.9%
2 · Puertollano35.8%
Model estimate: win Socuellamos 36.3%, draw 27.9%, win Puertollano 35.8%. Model favourite — Socuellamos.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Xdraw (odds3.20)Score 1:1confidence 50%
•Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 31% on the line (odds 3.20)
•edge over the line +19 pp — value pick
•Expected score 1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Socuellamos - Puertollano August 4, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Socuellamos. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.55 / X 3.30 / 2 2.55
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.4%
4 books
135.8%
X28.2%
235.9%
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P12.60↓ 2.55
1X2 X3.30→ 3.30
1X2 P22.55→ 2.55
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Socuellamos35.8%36.3%Glicko contrarian
Draw28.2%27.9%draw risk
Puertollano35.9%35.8%market favourite
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P236.3% / 27.9% / 35.8%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
22.55
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.8%
X3.30
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
12.55
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.3%
Double chance
121.30
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.1%
1X1.45
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.2%
X21.45
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.7%
Handicap
2 01.85
Fonbet · line only
1 01.85
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.51.90
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.51.80
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No2.03
market consensus · line only
Yes1.73
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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