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Start
28.07.2026 15:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 15:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Sparta Rotterdam - Asteras Tripolis
1
:
1
Finished
A
Asteras Tripolis
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Sparta Rotterdam — 51%
Pure model vs market (1 · Sparta Rotterdam): model 57% · market 51% Δ +6 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Sparta Rotterdam 51.1%, draw 25.6%, win Asteras Tripolis 23.3%. Model favourite — Sparta Rotterdam.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Sparta Rotterdam (odds1.83)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs Sparta 🇳🇱: probability 50% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.83)
- • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Sparta Rotterdam - Asteras Tripolis July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sparta Rotterdam.
Strongest: Sparta Rotterdam - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.81 / X 3.54 / 2 3.94
- 1X2 market: Sparta Rotterdam 50.8% / X 25.9% / Asteras Tripolis 23.3%
- Glicko: Sparta Rotterdam 51.1% / X 25.6% / Asteras Tripolis 23.3%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.9%
1
50.7%
X
25.9%
2
23.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
1.80
→ 1.80
1X2 X
3.85
↓ 3.75
1X2 2
3.70
↑ 3.85
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Sparta Rotterdam
2
:
2
Asteras Tripolis
11.86
X3.58
23.99
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Sparta Rotterdam 51%
💹 Market
Sparta Rotterdam 5077%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Sparta Rotterdam - Asteras Tripolis
Form
5/0
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 51.1% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.869 / LogLoss 1.362
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 51.1% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.869 / LogLoss 1.362
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Sparta Rotterdam
50.7%
51.1%
market and model agree
Draw
26.0%
25.6%
draw risk
Asteras Tripolis
23.3%
23.3%
1X2: 16 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
51.1% / 25.6% / 23.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,716 / 1,500
Sparta Rotterdam / Asteras Tripolis
RD
196 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,324-2,107 / 800-2,200
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.91
market consensus · no value · model 23.3%
X
1.11
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
9.50
Fonbet · weak value +385.3% · model 51.1%
Double chance
12
5.60
Fonbet · weak value +316.6% · model 74.4%
1X
1.03
Fonbet · no value · model 76.7%
X2
1.05
Fonbet · no value · model 48.9%
Handicap
2 -1
1.01
Fonbet · line only
2 +1
1.47
market consensus · line only
2 0
2.60
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
2.57
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
5.90
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.08
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.30
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.60
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.81 55.3% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | |
| X | 3.65 27.4% | 3.55 28.2% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.60 27.8% |
| 4.20 23.8% | 4.03 24.8% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.10 24.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.30 43.5% | 1.97 50.8% |
| yes | 1.60 62.5% | 1.78 56.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.17 85.5% | 1.23 81.3% | 5.60 17.9% |
| 1x | 1.20 83.3% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.03 97.1% |
| x2 | 1.74 57.5% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.05 95.2% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 9.50 10.5% |
| 0_1 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 0_2 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 0_3 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 0_4 | 101.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 6.25 16.0% |
| 1_1 | 6.00 16.7% |
| 1_2 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 1_3 | 26.00 3.9% |
| 1_4 | 71.00 1.4% |
| 2_0 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 2_3 | 29.00 3.5% |
| 2_4 | 76.00 1.3% |
| 3_0 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 3_1 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 3_2 | 19.00 5.3% |
Match center
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.83 (Betcity) · X 3.75 (Pari) · 2 3.85 (Pari)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.8 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| Winline | 1.8 | 3.55 | 3.8 |
| Fonbet | 1.8 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| Betcity | 1.83 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.82 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Sparta Rotterdam
L
L
W
W
W
Sparta Rotterdam
2:3
Zyulte-Varegem 🇧🇪
Sparta Rotterdam
2:3
Meppen 🇩🇪
Sparta Rotterdam
1:0
Telstar 🇳🇱
Sparta Rotterdam
4:0
VOC 🇳🇱
Sparta Rotterdam
8:0
SV VELO 🇳🇱
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
3.4
Scored
1.2
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historySparta Rotterdam - Asteras Tripolis
Sparta Rotterdam
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Sparta Rotterdam - Asteras Tripolis breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form