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28.07.2026 16:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 16:00 UTC
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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Swindon Town - Leyton Orient
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:
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Not started
L
Leyton Orient
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Leyton Orient — 37%
Pure model vs market (2 · Leyton Orient): model 55% · market 37% Δ +18 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Swindon Town 36.8%, draw 25.9%, win Leyton Orient 37.3%. Model favourite — Leyton Orient.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Leyton Orient (odds2.08)
Score 0:1
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Leyton Orient 🏴: probability 50% vs 48% on the line (odds 2.08)
- • edge over the line +2 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 0:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Swindon Town - Leyton Orient July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leyton Orient.
Line favourite market consensus: Leyton Orient. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.50 / X 3.46 / 2 2.45
- 1X2 market: Swindon Town 36.5% / X 26.3% / Leyton Orient 37.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.7%
1
36.5%
X
26.3%
2
37.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Swindon Town
1
:
2
Leyton Orient
12.48
X3.54
22.58
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Leyton Orient 37%
💹 Market
Leyton Orient 3722%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Swindon Town - Leyton Orient
Form
4/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Swindon Town
37.5%
36.8%
market favourite
Draw
26.4%
25.9%
draw risk
Leyton Orient
36.2%
37.3%
Glicko contrarian
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
36.8% / 25.9% / 37.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,280 / 1,697
Swindon Town / Leyton Orient
RD
208 / 215
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
863-1,696 / 1,267-2,127
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.46
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.3%
X
3.46
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.49
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.8%
Double chance
12
1.23
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 74.1%
1X
1.41
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 62.7%
X2
1.47
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.2%
Handicap
2 0
1.90
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.80
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.69
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.04
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.27
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.59
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.70 37.0% | 2.49 40.2% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.67 37.5% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.50 40.0% | |
| X | 3.45 29.0% | 3.54 28.3% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.40 29.4% |
| 2.30 43.5% | 2.58 38.8% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.50 40.0% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.27 44.1% |
| yes | 1.59 62.9% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.20 83.3% | 1.26 79.4% |
| 1x | 1.37 73.0% | 1.45 69.0% |
| x2 | 1.43 69.9% | 1.51 66.2% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 0_1 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 0_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 0_3 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 0_4 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 0_5 | 101.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 9.00 11.1% |
| 1_1 | 6.00 16.7% |
| 1_2 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 1_3 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 1_4 | 31.00 3.2% |
| 1_5 | 76.00 1.3% |
| 2_0 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_1 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 2_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 2_3 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 2_4 | 41.00 2.4% |
| 2_5 | 91.00 1.1% |
Match center
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 2.95 (Pari) · X 3.7 (Pari) · 2 2.14 (Liga Stavok)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 2.95 | 3.7 | 2.12 |
| Winline | 2.9 | 3.55 | 2.11 |
| Fonbet | 2.95 | 3.7 | 2.12 |
| Betcity | 2.85 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.9 | 3.55 | 2.14 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Swindon Town
L
L
L
W
Swindon Town
1:3
Bristol Siti 🏴
Bristol Siti 🏴
Swindon Town
1:5
Kristal Pelas 🏴
Swindon Town
0:1
Chippenkhem 🏴
Swindon Town
1:0
Suindon S 🏴
1
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
0.8
Scored
2.3
Conceded
3
Points
Leyton Orient
D
L
L
W
W
Leyton Orient
1:1
Sautend Yunayted 🏴
Sautend Yunayted 🏴
Leyton Orient
1:2
Khorncherch 🏴
Leyton Orient
1:2
Cheshant 🏴
Leyton Orient
2:0
Linkoln 🏴
Linkoln 🏴
Leyton Orient
4:1
Enfild Taun 🏴
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.8
Scored
1.2
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historySwindon Town - Leyton Orient
Swindon Town
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Swindon Town - Leyton Orient breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form