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UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
31.07.2026 16:15 UTC
31.07.2026 16:15 UTC
Not started

UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg

Toulon - Aubagne

Football
T
Toulon
- : -
Not started
A
Aubagne
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Aubagne — 44%

Pure model vs market (2 · Aubagne): model 27% · market 46% Δ −19 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Toulon32.7%
X · draw23.2%
2 · Aubagne44.1%

Model estimate: win Toulon 32.7%, draw 23.2%, win Aubagne 44.1%. Model favourite — Aubagne.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Toulon (odds2.85) Score 2:1 confidence 52%
  • • Model backs Tulon 🇫🇷: probability 52% vs 35% on the line (odds 2.85)
  • • edge over the line +17 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toulon - Aubagne July 31, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Aubagne. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 3.00 / X 3.95 / 2 2.03

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 30.9%
X 23.5%
2 45.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 31.07.2026 16:15 UTC
Match center

Toulon - Aubagne

Form 0/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Toulon 31.5% 32.7%
Draw 23.4% 23.2% draw risk
Aubagne 45.2% 44.1% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 32.7% / 23.2% / 44.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,367 Toulon / Aubagne
RD 350 / 251 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 866-1,869 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.03 Fonbet · no value · model 44.1%
X 3.95 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.00 Fonbet · no value · model 32.7%
Double chance
12 1.20 Fonbet · no value · model 76.8%
1X 1.70 Fonbet · no value · model 55.9%
X2 1.35 Fonbet · no value · model 67.3%
Handicap
2 0 1.58 Fonbet · line only
1 0 2.25 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.58 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.25 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.42 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.52 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.42 41.3%
yes 1.52 65.8%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
12 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3%
1x 1.72 58.1% 1.70 58.8%
x2 1.37 73.0% 1.35 74.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.46 28.9%
X 2.41 41.5%
2.52 39.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.32 43.1%
Under 1.5 1.54 64.9%
Match center
Aubagne
D L
24.07 13:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Aubagne 1:1 Bastiya 🇫🇷
11.07 14:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Aubagne 2:3 Monpele 🇫🇷
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.5 Scored
2.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyToulon - Aubagne

Toulon
0 matches total
Aubagne
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history