UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
Troyes - GOAL
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Troyes — 93%
Model estimate: win Troyes 92.5%, draw 5.0%, win GOAL 2.4%. Model favourite — Troyes.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Troyes - GOAL July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Troyes - GOAL
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.21 82.6% |
| yes | 4.09 24.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| x2 | 11.00 9.1% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.19 84.0% | |
| X | 4.40 22.7% |
| 31.00 3.2% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.87 53.5% |
| Over 2 | 2.03 49.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.83 54.6% |
| Under 2 | 1.70 58.8% |
Full head-to-head historyTroyes - GOAL
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form