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Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
01.08.2026 12:00 UTC
01.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Not started

Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27

Union Berlin - Cagliari

Football
U
Union Berlin
- : -
Not started
C
Cagliari
๐ŸŽฏ PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Union Berlin โ€” 42%

Pure model vs market (1 ยท Union Berlin): model 33% ยท market 43% ฮ” โˆ’10 pp model estimates below the market

1 ยท Union Berlin42.5%
X ยท draw25.1%
2 ยท Cagliari32.5%

Model estimate: win Union Berlin 42.5%, draw 25.1%, win Cagliari 32.5%. Model favourite โ€” Union Berlin.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.66) Score 1:1 Under 2.5 (odds2.05) confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 27% on the line (odds 3.66)
  • • edge over the line +23 pp โ€” value pick
  • • Expected score 1
  • • Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~2 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 2.05).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Union Berlin - Cagliari August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Union Berlin. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.18 / X 3.75 / 2 2.95

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin โ€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.4%
1 43.1%
X 25.1%
2 31.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds โ€” reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line โ€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 2.18 โ†’ 2.18
1X2 X 3.75 โ†’ 3.75
1X2 P2 2.95 โ†’ 2.95

โ†“ odds shortened (money on this outcome), โ†‘ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Friendlies Clubs
League table
Union Berlin
not in table
Cagliari
#2014 ptsGP 21-1-01:0
ARRAY
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Union Berlin
W-D-L 3-2-5 Scored 2.16 Conceded 1.27 xG 2.18 xGA 0.98
Cagliari
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.03 Conceded 1.02 xG 1.79 xGA 1.11

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data โ€” for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Union Berlin
Rating 1605
Cagliari
Rating 1771

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model โ€” for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 12:00 UTC
Market 1 43.1% @ 2.18 / X 25.1% @ 3.75 / 2 31.8% @ 2.95
Match center

Union Berlin - Cagliari

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Union Berlin 43.1% 42.5% market and model agree
Draw 25.3% 25.1% draw risk
Cagliari 31.6% 32.5%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.5% / 25.1% / 32.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,452 / 1,688 Union Berlin ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช / Kalyari ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น
RD 191 / 249 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,071-1,833 / 1,190-2,186 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.95 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 32.5%
X 3.75 Fonbet ยท draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.18 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 42.5%
Double chance
12 1.25 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 74.9%
1X 1.37 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 67.5%
X2 1.65 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 57.5%
Handicap
2 -1 1.27 Fonbet ยท line only
2 +1 4.40 Fonbet ยท line only
2 0 2.20 Fonbet ยท line only
1 -1 3.25 Fonbet ยท line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.72 Fonbet ยท line only
Under 2.5 2.05 Fonbet ยท line only
Both teams to score
No 2.25 Fonbet ยท line only
Yes 1.62 Fonbet ยท line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.25 44.4% 2.23 44.8%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.61 62.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.21 82.6% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0%
1x 1.32 75.8% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0%
x2 1.59 62.9% 1.64 61.0% 1.65 60.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.73 36.6%
X 2.25 44.4%
3.46 28.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.65 60.6%
Under 1 2.11 47.4%
Match center
Union Berlin
L D L D W
2026-07-18 Club Friendly Games 2026
Union Berlin Aarau 2:1 Union Berlin
2026-07-17 Club Friendly Games 2026
Union Berlin Winterthur 1:1 Union Berlin
2026-07-12 Club Friendly Games 2026
Union Berlin Carl Zeiss Jena 2:0 Union Berlin
2026-07-09 Club Friendly Games 2026
Union Berlin Chemnitzer 1:1 Union Berlin
2026-07-05 Club Friendly Games 2026
Union Berlin Grun-Weiss Lubben 0:16 Union Berlin
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
3.8 Scored
1.2 Conceded
5 Points
Cagliari
W D W W L
2026-07-28 Club Friendly Games 2026
Cagliari 1:0 Modena Cagliari
2026-07-23 Club Friendly Games 2026
Cagliari 0:0 Sampdoria Cagliari
2026-05-24 Serie A 25/26
Milan 1:2 Cagliari Cagliari
2026-05-17 Serie A 25/26
Cagliari 2:1 Torino Cagliari
2026-05-09 Serie A 25/26
Cagliari 0:2 Udinese Cagliari
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyUnion Berlin - Cagliari

Union Berlin
0 matches total
Cagliari
Biggest win โ€” largest score margin
Highest-scoring match โ€” most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw โ€” draw with the most goals

Match history