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Start
29.07.2026 07:30 UTC
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29.07.2026 07:30 UTC
Finished
UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
Waalwijk - Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
W
Waalwijk
1
:
2
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Waalwijk — 46%
Pure model vs market (1 · Waalwijk): model 50% · market 5% Δ +45 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Waalwijk 46.2%, draw 24.6%, win Patro Eisden Maasmechelen 29.2%. Model favourite — Waalwijk.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Waalwijk (odds1.74)
Score 2:1
confidence 58%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs Valveyk 🇳🇱: probability 58% vs 57% on the line (odds 1.74)
- • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Waalwijk - Patro Eisden Maasmechelen July 29, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Patro Eisden Maasmechelen.
Line favourite Fonbet: Patro Eisden Maasmechelen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 10.00 / X 1.11 / 2 1.01
- Glicko: Waalwijk 46.2% / X 24.6% / Patro Eisden Maasmechelen 29.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 99.1%
1
5.0%
X
45.2%
2
49.7%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
1.85
↑ 2.15
1X2 X
3.95
↓ 3.60
1X2 2
3.50
↓ 2.95
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Friendlies Clubs
Best price
across 11 books
1
2.15
William Hill
X
4.00
Superbet
2
3.35
Superbet
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Waalwijk
W-D-L 2-4-4
Scored 0.92
Conceded 1.27
xG 1.77
xGA 1.38
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
W-D-L 5-3-2
Scored 1.34
Conceded 1.43
xG 1.64
xGA 1.45
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Waalwijk
Rating 1479
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
Rating 1541
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Match center
Waalwijk - Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
Form
5/3
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:2
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 46.2% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.774 / LogLoss 1.230
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 46.2% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.774 / LogLoss 1.230
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Waalwijk
45.9%
46.2%
market and model agree
Draw
24.8%
24.6%
draw risk
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
29.3%
29.2%
1X2: 2 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
46.2% / 24.6% / 29.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,510 / 1,396
Waalwijk / Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
RD
181 / 248
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,148-1,871 / 899-1,892
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.01
Fonbet · no value · model 29.2%
X
1.11
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
10.00
Fonbet · weak value +361.8% · model 46.2%
Double chance
12
5.30
Fonbet · weak value +299.7% · model 75.4%
1X
10.00
Fonbet · weak value +607.6% · model 70.8%
X2
1.04
Fonbet · no value · model 53.8%
Handicap
2 -1
1.92
Fonbet · line only
2 +1
2.10
Fonbet · line only
2 0
2.02
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
1.78
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
5.60
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.09
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.27
Fonbet · line only
Yes
3.25
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.27 78.7% | 2.11 47.4% |
| yes | 3.25 30.8% | 1.68 59.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 5.30 18.9% |
| 1x | 10.00 10.0% |
| x2 | 1.04 96.2% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 60.6% | — | |
| 1.02 98.0% | — | |
| 1.01 99.0% | — | |
| 1.78 56.2% | — | |
| 3.65 27.4% | — | |
| 11.50 8.7% | — | |
| 12.00 8.3% | — | |
| 1.70 58.8% | 1.45 69.0% | |
| 2.10 47.6% | — | |
| 9.50 10.5% | — | |
| 12.00 8.3% | — | |
| 1.92 52.1% | — | |
| 1.22 82.0% | — | |
| 1.01 99.0% | — | |
| 1.01 99.0% | — | |
| 2.02 49.5% | 2.63 38.0% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.45 69.0% |
| Over 1 | 2.02 49.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.85 54.1% |
| Over 2 | 3.75 26.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 5.60 17.9% |
| Over 3 | 11.50 8.7% |
| Over 3.5 | 11.50 8.7% |
| Over 4 | 4.40 22.7% |
| Over 4.5 | 7.70 13.0% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.60 38.5% |
| Under 1 | 1.70 58.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.85 54.1% |
| Under 2 | 1.20 83.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.09 91.7% |
| Under 3 | 1.01 99.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.01 99.0% |
| Under 4 | 1.15 87.0% |
| Under 4.5 | 1.04 96.2% |
Match center
Waalwijk
L
D
D
D
D
Waalwijk
0:2
Bokhum II 🇩🇪
Waalwijk
2:2
FK Volendam 🇳🇱
Waalwijk
1:1
Alemaniya Akhen 🇩🇪
Waalwijk
0:0
Kozakken Boys 🇳🇱
Waalwijk
1:1
Yong AZ Alkmar 🇳🇱
0
Wins
4
Draws
1
Losses
0.8
Scored
1.2
Conceded
4
Points
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
L
D
L
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
4:6
Antverpen 🇧🇪
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
0:0
Kheyst 🇧🇪
Kheyst 🇧🇪
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
0:4
Sint-Treyden 🇧🇪
Sint-Treyden 🇧🇪
0
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.3
Scored
3.3
Conceded
1
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyWaalwijk - Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
Waalwijk
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Waalwijk - Patro Eisden Maasmechelen breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form