•Model backs Vilyakanyas πͺπΈ: probability 50% vs 25% on the line (odds 4.08)
•edge over the line +25 pp β value pick
•Expected score 1:0
•Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
•at line 2.5 (odds 1.72)
•Handicap F1 +1: score forecast 1:0 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.47).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
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Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Villacanas - Talavera August 6, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Talavera. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 4.30 / X 3.45 / 2 1.80
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.5%
4 books
122.6%
X26.8%
250.7%
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line β for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P14.20β 4.30
1X2 X3.50β 3.45
1X2 P21.80β 1.80
β odds shortened (money on this outcome), β drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Villacanas22.6%23.9%
Draw26.8%26.5%draw risk
Talavera50.7%49.6%market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P223.9% / 26.5% / 49.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.80
Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 49.6%
X3.45
Fonbet Β· draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
14.30
Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 23.9%
Double chance
121.25
Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 73.5%
1X1.90
Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 50.4%
X21.18
Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 76.1%
Handicap
2 -0.51.80
market consensus Β· line only
2 +12.50
Fonbet Β· line only
2 01.35
market consensus Β· line only
1 +0.51.95
market consensus Β· line only
Total
Over 2.52.00
Fonbet Β· line only
Under 2.51.72
Fonbet Β· line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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