UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
Volfsburg π©πͺ - Telstar
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Volfsburg π©πͺ β 57%
Pure model vs market (1 Β· Volfsburg π©πͺ): model 60% Β· market 57% Ξ +3 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Volfsburg π©πͺ 57.5%, draw 22.9%, win Telstar 19.6%. Model favourite β Volfsburg π©πͺ.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Volfsburg π©πͺ: probability 59% vs 51% on the line (odds 1.95)
- • edge over the line +8 pp β value pick
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Volfsburg π©πͺ - Telstar July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.62 / X 4.05 / 2 4.60
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line β for reference, not a betting recommendation.β odds shortened (money on this outcome), β drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction β’ nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference β not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Volfsburg π©πͺ - Telstar
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.36 42.4% |
| yes | 1.55 64.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% |
| 1x | 1.15 87.0% | 1.16 86.2% |
| x2 | 2.20 45.5% | 2.15 46.5% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.14 46.7% | |
| X | 2.33 42.9% |
| 4.92 20.3% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.24 80.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.23 44.8% |
| Under 0.5 | 3.61 27.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.58 63.3% |
Odds Β· 4 bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.7 | 3.95 | 4.1 |
| Winline | 1.71 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| Fonbet | 1.7 | 3.95 | 4.1 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.73 | 3.85 | 4 |
Lion π«π·
Verl π©πͺ
Grafskhap π³π±
Sparta π³π±
Full head-to-head historyVolfsburg π©πͺ - Telstar
Match history
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