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28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
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28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Watford - Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น
W
Watford
-
:
-
Not started
F
Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น
๐ฏ PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Watford โ 58%
Model estimate: win Watford 57.7%, draw 17.9%, win Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น 24.4%. Model favourite โ Watford.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Watford (odds2.80)
Score 2:1
confidence 58%
- • Model backs Uotford ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ: probability 58% vs 36% on the line (odds 2.80)
- • edge over the line +22 pp โ value pick
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Watford - Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น July 28, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.86 / X 3.79 / 2 2.46
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin โ for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 2.0%
1 ✓ Pick
34.3%
X
25.9%
2
39.9%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds โ reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Watford - Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น
Form
3/3
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Watford
34.3%
57.7%
Glicko contrarian
Draw
25.9%
17.9%
draw risk
Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น
39.9%
24.4%
market favourite
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
57.7% / 17.9% / 24.4%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,791 / 1,694
Watford / Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น
RD
234 / 226
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,323-2,260 / 1,243-2,146
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.46
market consensus ยท Glicko and market diverge ยท not marked as value ยท model 24.4%
X
3.79
market consensus ยท draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.86
market consensus ยท Glicko and market diverge ยท not marked as value ยท model 57.7%
Handicap
2 0
1.74
market consensus ยท line only
1 0
2.02
market consensus ยท line only
Both teams to score
No
2.43
market consensus ยท line only
Yes
1.52
market consensus ยท line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.43 41.2% |
| yes | 1.52 65.8% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.25 30.8% | |
| X | 2.26 44.3% |
| 2.86 35.0% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.58 63.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.25 44.4% |
| Under 1 | 2.23 44.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.57 63.7% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.02 49.5% | |
| 1.74 57.5% |
Match center
Watford
W
D
L
Watford
3:0
Ganza ๐ฉ๐ช
Ganza ๐ฉ๐ช
Watford
2:2
Barnet ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Watford
1:2
Borkhem Vud ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
1
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
2.0
Scored
1.3
Conceded
4
Points
Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น
L
W
W
Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น
2:3
KPR ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น
1:0
Gubbio ๐ฎ๐น
Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น
8:1
Fiorentina U20 ๐ฎ๐น
2
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
3.7
Scored
1.3
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyWatford - Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น
Watford
0
matches total
Biggest win
โ
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
โ
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
โ
draw with the most goals
Match history
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The Watford - Fiorentina ๐ฎ๐น breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form