UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Yuventus ๐ฎ๐น - Nitstsa ๐ซ๐ท
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Yuventus ๐ฎ๐น โ 53%
Pure model vs market (1 ยท Yuventus ๐ฎ๐น): model 35% ยท market 51% ฮ โ16 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Yuventus ๐ฎ๐น 53.0%, draw 23.4%, win Nitstsa ๐ซ๐ท 23.6%. Model favourite โ Yuventus ๐ฎ๐น.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Yuventus ๐ฎ๐น: probability 53% vs 58% on the line (odds 1.74)
- • no edge over the line (-5 pp) โ informational only
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Yuventus ๐ฎ๐น - Nitstsa ๐ซ๐ท July 30, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.85 / X 4.10 / 2 3.55
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin โ for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds โ reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line โ for reference, not a betting recommendation.โ odds shortened (money on this outcome), โ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Yuventus ๐ฎ๐น - Nitstsa ๐ซ๐ท
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.40 41.7% | 2.29 43.7% |
| yes | 1.55 64.5% | 1.58 63.3% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.22 82.0% | 1.22 82.0% |
| 1x | 1.20 83.3% | 1.27 78.7% |
| x2 | 2.03 49.3% | 1.90 52.6% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.19 45.7% | |
| X | 2.27 44.1% |
| 4.92 20.3% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.57 63.7% |
| Under 1 | 2.25 44.4% |
Full head-to-head historyYuventus ๐ฎ๐น - Nitstsa ๐ซ๐ท
Match history
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The Yuventus ๐ฎ๐น - Nitstsa ๐ซ๐ท breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form