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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
28.07.2026 14:30 UTC
28.07.2026 14:30 UTC
Not started

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ - Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ

Football
Z
Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
- : -
Not started
K
Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ β€” 42%

Pure model vs market (1 Β· Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ): model 31% Β· market 43% Ξ” βˆ’12 pp model estimates below the market

1 Β· Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ42.5%
X Β· draw28.0%
2 Β· Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ29.5%

Model estimate: win Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 42.5%, draw 28.0%, win Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 29.5%. Model favourite β€” Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ (odds2.10) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ: probability 50% vs 48% on the line (odds 2.10)
  • • edge over the line +2 pp β€” value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ - Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.12 / X 3.21 / 2 3.26

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.0%
1 43.3%
X 28.6%
2 28.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β€” reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 14:30 UTC
Match center

Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ - Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 43.2% 42.5% market and model agree
Draw 28.5% 28.0% draw risk
Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 28.4% 29.5%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.5% / 28.0% / 29.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,471 / 1,733 Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ / Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
RD 252 / 244 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 968-1,975 / 1,245-2,222 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.21 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 29.5%
X 3.19 market consensus Β· draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.11 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 42.5%
Double chance
12 1.27 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 72.0%
1X 1.27 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 70.5%
X2 1.60 market consensus Β· no value Β· model 57.5%
Handicap
2 0 2.37 market consensus Β· line only
1 0 1.52 market consensus Β· line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.59 market consensus Β· line only
Under 2.5 2.19 market consensus Β· line only
Both teams to score
No 2.30 market consensus Β· line only
Yes 1.58 market consensus Β· line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.30 43.5%
yes 1.58 63.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.23 81.3% 1.30 76.9%
1x 1.23 81.3% 1.30 76.9%
x2 1.55 64.5% 1.65 60.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.26 79.4%
Under 0.5 3.50 28.6%

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.53 65.4%
2.35 42.6% 2.37 42.2% 2.39 41.8%
Match center
Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
L W
25.07 06:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 0:1 Alaves πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
22.07 16:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Zhirona πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 3:1 Olot πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΈOlot πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.5 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
W W
25.07 16:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 2:1 Valensiya πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
18.07 15:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Kastelon πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ 2:0 Sabadel πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.5 Conceded
6 Points