Match center
Start
29.07.2026 20:00 UTC
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29.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
Estonia. League 4
Gremio π§π· - Bolivar U19
0
:
4
Finished
B
Bolivar U19
π― PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model Β· comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Gremio π§π· β 69%
Pure model vs market (1 Β· Gremio π§π·): model 30% Β· market 72% Ξ β42 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Gremio π§π· 69.3%, draw 18.8%, win Bolivar U19 12.0%. Model favourite β Gremio π§π·.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Bolivar U19 (odds1.78)
Score 1:2
Under 4.5
(odds1.80) β
Handicap H1 +4.5
(odds1.55) β
confidence 56%
β outcome correct
- • Model backs Bolivar π§π΄: probability 56% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.78)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) β informational only
- • Expected score 1:2
- • Total: Under 4.5: model expects a total of ~3 goals
- • at line 4.5 (odds 1.80)
- • Handicap F1 +4.5: score forecast 1:2 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.55).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Gremio π§π· - Bolivar U19 July 29, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Gremio π§π·.
Line favourite market consensus: Gremio π§π·. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.32 / X 5.10 / 2 10.20
- Glicko: Gremio π§π· 69.3% / X 18.8% / Bolivar U19 12.0%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 ✓ Pick
72.0%
X
18.6%
2
9.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Gremio π§π· - Bolivar U19
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
H2H
Line
More needed
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:4
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 69.3% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.290 / LogLoss 2.123
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 69.3% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.290 / LogLoss 2.123
Glicko-2: public filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 69.3% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.290 / LogLoss 2.123
Glicko-2: precision filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 69.3% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.290 / LogLoss 2.123
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Gremio π§π·
71.8%
69.3%
market and model agree
Draw
18.6%
18.8%
draw risk
Bolivar U19
9.6%
12.0%
1X2: 2 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
69.3% / 18.8% / 12.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,263 / 1,557
Gremio π§π· / Bolivar U19
RD
234 / 292
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
794-1,732 / 973-2,140
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
9.40
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 12.0%
X
5.05
market consensus Β· draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.31
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 69.3%
Double chance
12
1.15
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 81.2%
1X
1.04
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 88.0%
X2
3.20
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 30.7%
Total
Over 2.5
1.62
market consensus Β· line only
Under 2.5
2.20
market consensus Β· line only
Both teams to score
No
1.14
Fonbet Β· line only
Yes
4.70
Fonbet Β· line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.14 87.7% | 1.75 57.1% |
| yes | 4.70 21.3% | 2.01 49.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.15 87.0% |
| 1x | 1.04 96.2% |
| x2 | 3.20 31.3% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.73 57.8% | |
| X | 2.62 38.2% |
| 9.10 11.0% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.20 45.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.62 61.7% |
Match center
Gremio π§π·
L
Gremio π§π·
2:3
Bolivar π§π΄
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
2.0
Scored
3.0
Conceded
0
Points
Bolivar U19
W
Bolivar U19
3:2
Gremio π§π·
Gremio π§π·
1
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
3.0
Scored
2.0
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyGremio π§π· - Bolivar U19
Gremio π§π·
1
matches total
Gremio π§π·: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Bolivar U19: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Bolivar π§π΄ 2:3 (23.07 20:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
5 goals (2:3, 23.07 20:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
β
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Gremio π§π·
2:3
Bolivar π§π΄
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- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form