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South AMERIKA: Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup - Playoff
South AMERIKA: Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup - Playoff
28.07.2026 20:00 UTC
28.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Not started

South AMERIKA: Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup - Playoff

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 - Medelin 🇨🇴

Football
V
Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷
- : -
Not started
M
Medelin 🇨🇴
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Medelin 🇨🇴 — 58%

1 · Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷23.7%
X · draw18.6%
2 · Medelin 🇨🇴 ✓ Pick57.7%

Model estimate: win Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 23.7%, draw 18.6%, win Medelin 🇨🇴 57.7%. Model favourite — Medelin 🇨🇴.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Medelin 🇨🇴 (odds1.90) Score 1:2 confidence 53%
  • • Model backs Medelin 🇨🇴: probability 53% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.90)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 1:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 - Medelin 🇨🇴 July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.60 / X 4.03 / 2 5.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.8%
1 59.1%
X 23.4%
2 ✓ Pick 17.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 20:00 UTC
Match center

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 - Medelin 🇨🇴

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Form Match Participants H2H
More needed
Market fonbet, BetBoom, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Line fonbet, BetBoom, odds
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 - 23.7%
Draw - 18.6% draw risk
Medelin 🇨🇴 - 57.7% model pick

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 23.7% / 18.6% / 57.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,400 / 1,600 Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 / Medelin 🇨🇴
RD 291 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 818-1,982 / 1,018-2,182 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.37 market consensus · weak value +209.8% · model 57.7%
X 3.94 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.59 market consensus · no value · model 23.7%
Double chance
12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 81.4%
1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 42.3%
X2 2.25 market consensus · weak value +71.6% · model 76.3%
Handicap
2 +1 1.74 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.01 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.83 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.83 54.6%
yes 1.91 52.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.21 82.6% 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5%
x2 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.19 45.7%
X 2.32 43.1%
5.40 18.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.82 55.0%
Under 1 1.92 52.1%
Match center
Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷
L
22.07 20:00 UTC South AMERIKA: Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup - Playoff
Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 3:4 Medelin 🇨🇴
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
3.0 Scored
4.0 Conceded
0 Points
Medelin 🇨🇴
W
22.07 20:00 UTC South AMERIKA: Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup - Playoff
Medelin 🇨🇴 4:3 Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
4.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyVasko da Gama 🇧🇷 - Medelin 🇨🇴

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷
1 matches total
Medelin 🇨🇴
Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Medelin 🇨🇴: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Medelin 🇨🇴 3:4 (22.07 20:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 7 goals (3:4, 22.07 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 3

Match history

22.07 20:00 UTC South AMERIKA: Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup - Playoff
Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷
3:4
Medelin 🇨🇴