•Model backs Metallurg-Zhlobin: probability 51% vs 69% on the line (odds 1.44)
•no edge over the line (-18 pp) — informational only
•Expected score 2:3
•Total: Under 5.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
•at line 5.5 (odds 1.80)
•Handicap F1 +1.5: score forecast 2:3 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.90).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction HC Lokomotiv Orsha - Metallurg Zhlobin August 1, 2026
Hockey math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Metallurg Zhlobin. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 5.00 / X 5.00 / 2 1.44
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.4%
118.3%
X18.3%
263.5%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P15.00→ 5.00
1X2 X5.00→ 5.00
1X2 P21.44→ 1.44
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form2/2
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market3
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
Tournamentespn, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, goalie report
RefereesChampionat
Market and Glicko
Hockey math model.
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
HC Lokomotiv Orsha18.3%49.0%
Draw18.3%-
Metallurg Zhlobin63.5%51.0%market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Hockey math model
P1 / P249.0% / 51.0%
probabilities
Rating1,226 / 1,500
HC Lokomotiv Orsha / Metallurg Zhlobin
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.44
Fonbet · no value · model 51.0%
X5.00
Fonbet · line only
15.00
Fonbet · weak value +144.8% · model 49.0%
Total
Over 4.51.45
Fonbet · line only
Over 51.60
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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