•Model backs KhK Vitebsk: probability 51% vs 77% on the line (odds 1.30)
•no edge over the line (-26 pp) — informational only
•Expected score 3:2
•Total: Under 5.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
•at line 5.5 (odds 1.85)
•Handicap F2 +2: score forecast 3:2 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.78).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction HC Vitebsk - HC Mogilev August 2, 2026
Hockey math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: HC Vitebsk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.30 / X 5.70 / 2 6.67
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.5%
170.3%
X16.0%
213.7%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.30→ 1.30
1X2 X5.70→ 5.70
1X2 P26.67→ 6.67
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form2/2
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market3
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
Tournamentespn, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, goalie report
RefereesChampionat
Market and Glicko
Hockey math model.
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
HC Vitebsk70.3%51.0%market and model agree
Draw16.0%-
HC Mogilev13.7%49.0%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Hockey math model
P1 / P251.0% / 49.0%
probabilities
Rating1,686 / 1,500
HC Vitebsk / HC Mogilev
RD259 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,168-2,204 / 800-2,200
strength interval
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Betting snapshot
1X2
26.67
Fonbet · weak value +226.5% · model 49.0%
X5.70
Fonbet · line only
11.30
Fonbet · no value · model 51.0%
Handicap
2 -12.75
Fonbet · line only
2 05.20
Fonbet · line only
1 -11.40
Fonbet · line only
1 01.12
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 4.51.42
Fonbet · line only
Over 51.57
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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