•Model backs KhK Vitebsk: probability 52% vs 38% on the line (odds 2.60)
•edge over the line +13 pp — value pick
•Expected score 2:3
•Total: Over 4.5: model expects a total of ~5 goals
•at line 4.5 (odds 1.85)
•Handicap F2 +0: score forecast 2:3 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 2.02).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Metallurg Zhlobin - HC Vitebsk August 4, 2026
Hockey math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Metallurg Zhlobin. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.18 / X 4.00 / 2 2.60
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.3%
142.0%
X22.9%
235.2%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P12.18→ 2.18
1X2 X4.00→ 4.00
1X2 P22.60→ 2.60
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form1/1
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market3
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
Tournamentespn, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, goalie report
RefereesChampionat
Market and Glicko
Hockey math model.
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Metallurg Zhlobin42.0%48.5%market favourite
Draw22.9%-
HC Vitebsk35.2%51.5%Glicko contrarian
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Hockey math model
P1 / P248.5% / 51.5%
probabilities
Rating1,413 / 1,770
Metallurg Zhlobin / HC Vitebsk
RD289 / 236
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD836-1,991 / 1,298-2,243
strength interval
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Betting snapshot
1X2
22.60
Fonbet · value +34.0% · model 51.5%
X4.00
Fonbet · line only
12.18
Fonbet · weak value +5.6% · model 48.5%
Handicap
2 -11.38
Fonbet · line only
2 +13.40
Fonbet · line only
2 02.02
Fonbet · line only
1 -12.80
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 3.51.35
Fonbet · line only
Over 41.50
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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