•Model backs Khimik Novopolotsk: probability 51% vs 24% on the line (odds 4.15)
•edge over the line +27 pp — value pick
•Expected score 2:3
•Handicap F2 +1: score forecast 2:3 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.90).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
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Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Slavutich Smolensk - Khimik Novopolotsk August 4, 2026
Hockey math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Slavutich Smolensk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.65 / X 4.15 / 2 4.15
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.8%
155.7%
X22.1%
222.1%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.65→ 1.65
1X2 X4.15→ 4.15
1X2 P24.15→ 4.15
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form1/1
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market3
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
Tournamentespn, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, goalie report
RefereesChampionat
Market and Glicko
Hockey math model.
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Slavutich Smolensk55.7%49.2%market favourite
Draw22.2%-
Khimik Novopolotsk22.2%50.8%Glicko contrarian
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The hockey model separates regulation and moneyline: it accounts for Glicko-2, goaltender, shots, OT/SO and the total. We do not overweight goal differential, because empty-net and overtime can distort team strength.
Betting snapshot
1X2
24.15
Fonbet · weak value +110.9% · model 50.8%
X4.15
Fonbet · line only
11.65
Fonbet · no value · model 49.2%
Handicap
2 -11.90
Fonbet · line only
2 03.15
Fonbet · line only
1 -11.80
Fonbet · line only
1 01.30
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 4.51.55
Fonbet · line only
Over 51.78
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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